http://www.tickerhound.com/feed/user/MoresbyChief/asked/feed.rss TickerHound.com Question Feed - user: MoresbyChief's asked questions en-us contact@tickerhound.com Copyright 2009 http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/2009113e59c96/advice-on-foreign-currency-exposure-for-an-expat-s-cash-savings http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/2009113e59c96/advice-on-foreign-currency-exposure-for-an-expat-s-cash-savings I am from the UK, but am moved about internationally for work. Ultimately I may end up moving back to the UK - but whether this is in 1 yr or 10 I don't know. Hence I am planning for the long-term what to do with my cash savings. Stocks/shares I am considering seperately Most of my cash in pounds but I also have an amount saved in NZD and HKD. In particular NZD has appreciated against the GBP and USD a lot recently, and the HKD (tied to the USD) has appreciated a lot against the GBP since a year ago. Any advice for what currencies I should keep my savings in? NZD is getting 3% interest but may be overbought. HKD/USD almost zero % interest and may weaken further against the GBP and other currencies. GBP I can get 3-4% (well above BOE rate) but I am not sure where GBP is headed given the state of the UK economy. I might also consider the Yuan as this has the potential to strengthen over the long-term. And what about Euros or Swiss Francs? Your thoughts much appreciate Tue, 03 Nov 2009 19:40:54 -0500 http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/200908f23f52f/why-is-the-definition-for-leaving-recession-and-re-entering-growth-only-1-quarter-of-positive-gdp-growth http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/200908f23f52f/why-is-the-definition-for-leaving-recession-and-re-entering-growth-only-1-quarter-of-positive-gdp-growth Recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. Why isn't the same logic applied to defining when an economy leaves recession and re-enters a growth phase? It appears we are already talking about Europe exiting recession after just one quarter of positive growth. To me it is illogical and misleading to use one yardstick for the one term and quite another for the other. Can anyone shed some light on the reasoning, and share your thoughts as to whether the current definition needs more thought? Sat, 15 Aug 2009 16:53:27 -0400 http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/2009061c601fbd/what-are-the-best-ways-to-hedge-against-a-weakening-us-dollar http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/2009061c601fbd/what-are-the-best-ways-to-hedge-against-a-weakening-us-dollar I am an expat, my salary is pegged to the US$. However eventually I will return to the UK to live. The prospect of a weakening $ therefore is quite concerning for me. What is the best way for me to hedge against this risk? - Commodoties (gold/oil in particular) are often cited as hedges against a declining dollar. As the dollar weakens the price for these will go up, as they are priced in dollars. But won't the rise in gold/oil merely offset the dollar's decline, plus/minus the effect of supply/demand/other fundamentals of the commodity? Therefore for the non-US dollar investor, what you're actually buying is not a dollar hedge - as the effect of this should be zero in the long term. Is this correct? - Perhaps the purest way to dollar hedge would be to buy a basket of non-USD currencies. This could be done through an ETF. What are the risks? What I am trying to accomplish is not to profit from a falling $ but to reduce the risk of my future earnings being eroded by a tanking $. Sun, 28 Jun 2009 05:48:16 -0400 http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/20090513044d8b/if-you-had-to-buy-and-hold-just-5-stocks-now-for-the-next-10-20-years-what-would-they-be http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/20090513044d8b/if-you-had-to-buy-and-hold-just-5-stocks-now-for-the-next-10-20-years-what-would-they-be Personally I am not interested in 'trading' but am after stocks which you can 'buy and forget' (within reason), therefore the following criteria might be worth considering: - Great company that's going to be around for generations - Wide 'competitive moat' - high barriers to entry - History of increasing dividends over time - Excellent management For the purposes of this exercise I believe current valuations should be excluded as a factor to buy or not to buy. This is such a long-term decision that current valuations are not so relevant, plus I would likely average in over a period of 12-18 months, thereby reducing the impact of any over/under valuation there might be right now. Interested to hear people's thoughts! Many thanks.... Tue, 19 May 2009 04:28:09 -0400 http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/2009059296bf8/where-is-the-market-heading-time-to-sell-into-this-rally-or-do-we-keep-buying http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/2009059296bf8/where-is-the-market-heading-time-to-sell-into-this-rally-or-do-we-keep-buying The speed with which sentiment has changed from ultra-bearish (overdone) to talk of a recovery (also I believe overdone) make me question how sustainable this market recovery is. Is another 'leg down' on its way? Sat, 09 May 2009 03:43:27 -0400 http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/200903e3e1c1c/assuming-a-long-term-investment-horizon-what-stocks-would-you-be-buying-over-the-next-3-12-months http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/200903e3e1c1c/assuming-a-long-term-investment-horizon-what-stocks-would-you-be-buying-over-the-next-3-12-months Particularly I am thinking of well-managed, well-respected business with good brands which are going to be around for 20 years+. Not necessarily sexy industries promising massive returns - steady 10-15% a year growth (over the long term) and no sleepless nights is what interests me. Sat, 14 Mar 2009 04:34:34 -0400 http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/200902f4c156f/what-are-your-views-on-the-future-direction-of-dollar-sterling http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/200902f4c156f/what-are-your-views-on-the-future-direction-of-dollar-sterling I have savings in USD which have appreciated a good deal in the past few months in Sterling terms. Will the new US bail out approval result in a plumetting dollar (and the value of my savings with it) or is the UK economy in such bad shape that Sterling will weaken further against the USD? I am probably going to sell 1/3 of my USD into Sterling soon, and then wait and see where things go. Any thoughts? Sun, 15 Feb 2009 00:33:17 -0500 http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/2009026b99830/advice-for-a-long-term-investor-stocks-property-both http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/2009026b99830/advice-for-a-long-term-investor-stocks-property-both Hi all, What is the best place to put my money? Am in my 20's, fortunate enough to have a good chunk of cash in the bank as well as a chunk in index trackers. About 20% of my savings are in trackers, which I add to every month automatically. I do not own a home, but as my employer pays for my rent, I am not 'throwing money away' on this, and therefore am able to save a large proportion of my salary. My question is, given that I have a very long term time horizon (10 years +) where should I be investing? A lot of different asset prices seem attractive to me now. Do I: (a) Increase my monthly payments into tracker funds to take advantage of the current prices (b) Invest in property - the idea being that eventually I will want to own somewhere of my own (c) Both Obviously the more money I have tied up in funds the less I have for a deposit, and therefore the bigger my mortgage. Either way, I'd be careful not to over extend myself, keeping a cash reserve 'just in case' Fri, 06 Feb 2009 04:08:16 -0500 http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/2008051ceee90e/how-should-i-balance-emerging-markets-against-mature http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/2008051ceee90e/how-should-i-balance-emerging-markets-against-mature Of my money invested in stocks, I currently have about 20% in emerging markets (all through low cost funds), the rest in mature markets (low cost funds and some stocks). My question is what is the correct balance? I am a very long-term (20-40 years) essentially buy-and-hold investor. As a result I am not too worried about seeing large losses in individual holdings (especially if they are diverse funds), and would most likely take that as a signal to buy more, unless the fundamentals had really changed. With that in mind, would it be reasonable for me to increase my exposure to emerging market funds to, say, 50%? I realise these markets come with risk, but over time surely that is where the better growth is. I would also adjust this down as I got older, and closer to retirement, so as to avoid too much volatility. Or would it be imprudent to put so much into emerging markets? Thanks for the advice. Wed, 28 May 2008 03:08:35 -0400 http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/2008051a679065/is-it-too-late-to-buy-into-oil-stocks http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/2008051a679065/is-it-too-late-to-buy-into-oil-stocks I have been waiting over the past few months for an opportunity to invest further in oil stocks - possibly an oilservice ETF, or a Canadian trust (e.g. PennWest). However I seem to be waiting for a correction that never comes and have missed out on some large gains. With a long term view I think there is still money to be made in this space, but I can't help but think that at this point there is more downside than upside. But then I have been thinking that for the past 6 months! Is it time to just bite the bullet and buy in, accepting the fact that there may be a short term correction but realising that the long-long-term bull market is intact? Mon, 26 May 2008 18:32:21 -0400 http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/200806297e993/what-s-the-future-for-the-airline-industry http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/200806297e993/what-s-the-future-for-the-airline-industry Airline stocks have been severely beaten up in the past months, mostly as a result of rising fuel costs. But what of the industry from a long-term perspective? Can airlines continue to operate as we know them if oil remains so expensive? Will we see consolidation amongst carriers? Will the world just have to fly less often? (Perhaps businesses will start to use videoconferencing more instead of face-to-face meetings?) What does all this mean for the airline related stocks? I personally cannot imagine a world where high fuel costs mean that people are no longer able to fly. Captialism always seems to find a way - so perhaps companies seeking fuel efficiencies, or new means of powering aircraft are the ones set to benefit? What about the aircraft manufacturers? How will this affect aircraft sales? Will the Airbus design of much larger aircraft, flying hub-to-hub prove more feasible than Boeing's smaller Dreamliner given fuel costs? How will GE's engine sales be affected? Mon, 02 Jun 2008 20:19:05 -0400 http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/2008054cd4b47/is-cameco-showing-a-symmetrical-triangle-stock-pattern http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/2008054cd4b47/is-cameco-showing-a-symmetrical-triangle-stock-pattern I have been interested in the nuclear investment story as it seems compelling in the long-term (albeit potentially volatile if the very worst happens - think Chernobyl). 2007 saw bubble territory for the price of uranium and I decided to stay away. With prices back to much more reasonable levels, I am interested in the world's largest uranium producer, Cameco which has lost 30% of its value in the past 9 months. I would be buying as a long-term investment, not a 'trade'. However I was interested to spot what looks like a symmetrical triangle pattern emerging since Jan2008, also with reducing volume, another signal. From some quick research, this pattern, when it comes during a downward trend (eg Cameco), suggests a continuation of this down trend once it breaks out of the triangle. However some say that this pattern is only valid if it breaks out within a certain time frame, but am not sure how this applies in this case. Would be very interested to hear people's views on this. Sun, 04 May 2008 17:22:30 -0400 http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/2008041d349f4a/what-does-your-portfolio-look-like-right-now-and-what-is-your-strategy-going-forwards http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/2008041d349f4a/what-does-your-portfolio-look-like-right-now-and-what-is-your-strategy-going-forwards I am always curious to know what other people's portfolios look like, and I think it could be a very useful learning experience to get a feel for how people are positioning themselves in this market. Therefore I hope that lots of people can post here with a guide to what their portfolio looks like - obviously you can be as specific or as broad as you like depending on how much detail you want to go into. For example you might not want to say the name of an obscure small cap you're invested in, you could just say "Small Cap Technology Stock". My portfolio as of 30/4/08, all equities unless otherwise stated: Cash - 72.5% Oil Stocks (BP & Shell) - 6% Emerging Market Funds - 4.5% Chinese RMB (cash) - 4.5% UK Fund - 2.5% Alternative Energy Fund - 2% GlaxoSmithK - 2% Mining Fund - 1.5% Water Fund - 1.5% Europe Fund - 1.5% Japan Fund - 1.5% I have my eye on a few ETFs (Taiwan&Infrastructure) and a US Fund, but am waiting for a summer correction before diving in further. Tue, 29 Apr 2008 20:44:25 -0400 http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/2008041cce0820/is-real-estate-a-good-investment-over-long-term-when-adjusted-for-inflation http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/2008041cce0820/is-real-estate-a-good-investment-over-long-term-when-adjusted-for-inflation I recently saw some data from the S&P/Case-Shiller real estate index which was quite surprising. The data is based on US housing valuations, and are adjusted for inflation. I wish I could paste the graph here, but in lieu of that I will describe it. Starting from a re-based point of 100 in 1890, the index has tracked the following rough path: 1900: 120 1910: 105 1920-1945: 70-80 1950: 110 1950-1970: 110-115 1970s boom: 120 (then back to 110) 1980s boom: as above 1990-c1998: 110 c1998-today: 110-200 Essentially the data argues that, when US housing valuations are adjusted for inflation, over the very long term (1890-1998) residential real estate was pretty much a zero sum game, rising 10% over the period with some short-lived spikes along the way. If we discount the past 10 years as little more than a short term bubble, then it does make me question the received wisdom that property investing is one of the greatest routes to wealth. Thoughts please.... Mon, 28 Apr 2008 22:17:23 -0400 http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/200804152fc8be/market-rally-is-anyone-else-sceptical http://www.tickerhound.com/questions/detail/200804152fc8be/market-rally-is-anyone-else-sceptical This rally seems to have been sparked by the Fed’s apparent guarantee to underwrite the banks and not let them go bust. Naturally, markets are more confident. But there's something I don't quite get. I think the first whiff of it was the day a few weeks ago when UBS announced more writedowns, and a rights issue. Normally this would have been bad news, but the market rallied! With the exception of GE's earnings, is the market now 'ignoring' bad news? Wash Mu and Wachovia are both going to have to raise more capital; banks in general are starved of capital. And I'm sure there are more skeletons in the closet that they're not quite admitting yet - as though if they disclose the writedowns gradually, that's better than all in one go. But have the markets forgotten about the overextended consumer, the complete lack of savings, the pain that they're going to feel when re-possessions start in earnest? The bull of the last 4 years has been fed by ill advised credit; is the party over? Mon, 21 Apr 2008 03:26:27 -0400