What do you think of POT-N[Potash of CANADA]??...RUDY.
POTASH is on Toronto & NEW YORK exchanges.
Answers
4085 points
EthanR answered one year ago …
This company has done well, but I am afraid it is looking like a head and shoulders top formation is developing on POT. Does anyone else see this?
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104 points
Mahmood answered one year ago …
Pot is good company..has done well and I think it will continue. But my concern if the stock is overvalued...otherwise, it's a good company..
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3963 points
MNSL answered one year ago …
EthanR and Mahmood both have given correct answer. Absolutely it is overvalued now. Even if it is gold we must make sure that we are not overpaying.
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161 points
wilson323 answered one year ago …
I believe the high demand of the fertilizer is the driven for the high valuation of this stock, and the high entry barrier provided the company kind of monopoly position. The increasing in inflation will benefit the POT to deliver higher profit. I will consider to buy if it dip under 105.
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2183 points
ChaosNantuko answered one year ago …
I'm thinking the head and shoulders is really weak in this case. Also, its price has increased at a similar speed to its industry over the last year. Finally, the stock is accurately priced IF it can grow at about 30% annually for the next 5 years, which, given the macro-trend, isn't unrealistic. If that turns out to be a fair assumption, then the stock actually has a strong chance of going up drastically over the next year, because analysts are pegging growth over the next year at around 18%, and blowing away estimates always shoots the stock price up, as well as causing earnings revisions that increase the price.
I wouldn't say its overvalued, but i wouldn't say its undervalued either (profit would come from it becoming overvalued, which i believe could happen soon). There is some support at 130, so that limits your risk a lot if you do decide to buy here. If it breaks the support at 130, it becomes a great short candidate from a technical perspective, because it has a very strong chance of breaking the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern at about 120, and continuing down to around 90 (although take profits on the short around 100, to be safe. This case of the pattern isn't the greatest, due to lack of clarity).
142 points
RobertW answered one year ago …
Currently, POT is not overbought, but close to it, looking back on 2 years price data. The problem is that its annualized price growth is about 140% while its earnings growth is only 53%. That difference makes it overpriced and in time the market will realize this and make a downward correction.
Read more from RobertW112 points
apdset58 answered 7 months ago …
Well, great call EthanR!
As we now see, POT was a "head and shoulders" and did drop like a boulder. Now, what do people think of POTASH?
Also, this stock is a great example of why I do not like Fundamentals alone. The numbers, IMO, can be twisted and turned to meet the needs of the individual. If you base your trading (and I mean trading, not investing) on Fundamentals, I believe you could get burned more often. I like trading with stocks that show good Fundamentals at the moment, and then apply my system subsequently. By doing so, I am using well qualified Fundamental stocks with good technical entries. . . as long as my system is good.
And, so far, so good - it is approx. 80% accurate, with approx. 5-10 "buy" calls per call set and anywhere from a 5-25% return per stock that was accurate. It usually fires 3 "buy" signals per year and provides an annualized return of anywhere from 15% (on the low, low side) to 75% (on the high, high side). Currently (as of 4/13/09) and since the past year, my system ("MFA1") is UP almost 42.00%. The results follow:
AS OF: 4/2/09
GYMB 7/17/08 40.4 39.72 - 1.68% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 9/16/08) ---
LNN 7/17/08 80.1 86.01 + 7.38% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 8/19/08) +++
NEU 7/17/08 61.5 63.47 + 3.20% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 8/22/08) ++-
ARO 7/18/08 32.3 32.36 + 0.18% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 8/21/08) --+
CMCO 7/18/08 22.5 28.28 +25.68% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 8/22/08) +++
ESRX 7/7/08 64.3 72.99 +13.51% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 8/22/08)
+--
COH 7/17/08 27.3 27.80 + 1.83% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 8/22/08)
+--
MAT 7/15/08 17.1 20.97 +22.63% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 8/18/08) +--
ATI 7/14/08 55.9 45.03 -19.45% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 7/25/08) +++
PVH 7/16/08 34.9 35.24 + 0.97% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 8/20/08) +-+
RKT 7/14/08 30.2 35.79 +18.51% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 8/18/08) +-+
PNC 6/27/08 57.7 70.53 +22.24% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 8/12/08) +-+
FDX 7/12/08 75.4 82.45 + 9.35% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 8/19/08) +++
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EOG 3/9/09 52.5 62.45 +18.95% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 3/18/09) +-+: IN "BEAR" MARKET, 1) F OF "MFA1" TRIGGERED, 2) TRENDLINE RESISTANCE MET.
APA 3/11/09 57.3 67.16 +17.21% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 3/19/09) +++:
DVN 3/10/09 40.1 47.38 +18.15% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 3/18/09) +++: IN "BEAR" MARKET, 1) TRENDLINE RESISTANCE MET.
NUE 3/10/09 36.0 35.51 - 1.36% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 3/18/09) +--: IN "BEAR" MARKET, 1) F OF "MFA1" TRIGGERED.
FLS 3/10/09 50.1 57.23 +14.23% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 3/18/09) ++-: IN "BEAR" MARKET, 1) TRENDLINE RESISTANCE MET.
R 3/10/09 21.5 27.17 +26.37% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 3/18/09) +++: IN "BEAR" MARKET, 1) TRENDLINE RESISTANCE MET.
VZ 3/11/09 28.0 32.76 +17.00% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 4/2/09) +-+: IN "BEAR" MARKET, 1) TARGET WAS MET. IT MAY GO HIGHER, BUT I WON'T CHANCE IT.
LNN 3/10/09 22.9 26.91 +17.51% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 3/18/09) +++: IN "BEAR" MARKET, 1) TRENDLINE RESISTANCE MET.
CNX 3/10/09 28.4 30.73 + 8.20% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 3/19/09) +--: IN "BEAR" MARKET, 1) TRENDLINE RESISTANCE MET.
CMCO 3/11/09 7.43 9.82 +32.17% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 3/18/09) +++: IN "BEAR" MARKET, 1) TRENDLINE RESISTANCE MET.
FDX 3/16/09 38.7
42.96
+11.01% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 3/18/09) +-+: IN "BEAR" MARKET, 1) TRENDLINE RESISTANCE MET.
APOL 3/18/09 70.3 73.17 + 4.08% ("MFA1": SOLD ON 3/20/09) +-+: IN "BEAR" MARKET, 1) RESISTANCE MET.
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TKR 3/24/09 14.28 15.68 + 9.80% THIS STOCK IS JUST BEING TRACKED AS PER CONVERSATION WITH ONE OF THE TRADERS (IT IS NOT PART OF THIS PORTFOLIO OF CURRENT TRADES) . THE "MFA1" SYSTEM WOULD HAVE PROVIDED A "BUY" SIGNAL ON THIS STOCK ON 3/10/09, AT A PRICE OF APPROX. 12.60 PER SHARE.
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A VERAGE RETURN (FOR CLOSED POSITIONS ONLY): + 24.67%
ACCURACY PERCENTAGE (FOR CLOSED POSITIONS): 88.00% ACCURATE
AVERAGE RETURN [FOR CLOSED POSITIONS PLUS (+)
AVERAGE FOR CURRENT OPEN POSITIONS]: [(+ 24.67%) + (+11.50%)] = 41.67% (FROM 6/27/08 TO 4/2/09; WHICH IS A HOLDING PERIOD OF APPROX. 78 DAYS)
ANNUALIZED RETURN FOR ALL "MFA1" POSITIONS: +133.56%
RETURN FOR S&P 500 (FROM 7/17/08 TO PRESENT): -28.56%
RETURN FOR S&P 500 (2008): -37.60%
