Dollar has biggest weekly loss ever - how can it stop?
How will our government stop the dollar from falling -- and if they don't, should we be looking elsewhere for investing opportunities (China, Europe, etc.)?
Answers
MNSL answered 10 months ago …
I think no sooner than later dollar will appreciate surprise to many when following events happen during next 18 months. In some points dollar has to stop from depreciating. On the other hands history has proved no asset has appreciated or depreciated continuously.
Possible interest rate cut in countries like Australia, New Zealand in 2009
Possible commodity correction especially for gold and oil in 2009
Gradual reduction of carry trade activities
Gradual increase of foreign money flow once stocks become cheap
When market forces change their foreign currency strategy
Gradual weakening of Pound and Euro due to interest rate cut
When interest rate cut comes to end in USA
When bullish trend for other currencies comes to end
When speculators try to buy US dollar and while disposing other currencies
When U.S. economic slowdown started to effects Europe and other emerging countries
We all know recently housing market, stock market and credit market changed instantly. So there will be some correction in commodity market as well while appreciating US Dollar most believe at the end the year or beginning of next year.
I strongly believe this type of situation in next 18 month. We must not forget currently US Dollar is not appreciating with some soft currencies. Similarly it is also appreciating against Euro, Yen and other Hard currencies time to time while depreciating against them. For example Dollar rose against yen in Asia on Monday. In other words it is fluctuating against some other currencies now.
Oldman answered 10 months ago …
Actually, the countries that currently have some of the best "balance of trade" are in the category considered emerging markets, with commodities sought by China and developed nations. I don't agree with MNSL, above...the U,S. dollar has been weakened by excessive debt and borrowing by the Fed and private citizens over the past 20 years. The increase in M3 (total funds) far outpaced productivity. I expect the purchasing power of the dollar for U.S. citizens to decline, especially for daily necessities: food, gasoline;infrastructural repairs; clean water and other civic support.
Let me add a small critique of an area where I have a generation's experience: Education--
The educational system is a shambles, with a focus on testing, but an absence of appropriate feedback to the individual learners... students aren't informed what level of test items they didn't perform well on: was it recall, discrimination, integration, evaluation, across the topics tested. So, the principal may have some idea of how student X compares with student Y, but none of them have a clue as to what type of exercise or work is required to improve performancefor a particular student. And this goes from kindergarten through graduate schools ... item analyses are performed by test designers to validate the test, but qualitative feedback/training is absent. Then schools are rated, and teachers paid or punished by a vague system.
So, statistically, it appears as though socioeconomic and family involvement have overweighted values for educational success. Let me tell you, picking up a hot handle, getting urine in your shoe or dust in your eye, gives you immediate feedback ...and you learn! Not some vague peer ranking system many days, digestive periods and sleep cycles since the anxiety-ridden test began.
Yeah, I know they practice and take tutoring/test-taking skills courses ... but if you're reading without comprehension, coloring the text (or copying it to an e-mail) isn't putting the concept in your head, and without an appropiate - and immediate challenge - how can you tell if you've mastered the idea?
It's also a mistake to expect all to perform at some level/age; some may need a year or two or time off, before they can reach the next step ... that's the nature of the heterogeneity of humanity. Some are slower to swim, but excel at catching or running; some 7 -yr old's can master the violin ... others can barely complete a sentence. With computerized assessment and training, a lot of skills (simulations) can be evaluated. 25 years ago, it was extremely expensive, but today, with a WII or xbox360, one can do this kind of evaluation in a non threatening way, vs fill in the ovals on a Scantron answer sheet.
Finally, asking students to tell you what they've learned (in a course or a day's work) is not nearly as illuminating as asking them to Show what they've learned.
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