Where do you think gold is going to top out?
Have we topped out yet or do we still have some more upside in Gold?
Answers
3943 points
MNSL answered one year ago …
It is hard to predict about topping up of prices for any commodity, stock and real estate.
We know what happened to some reports published by leading institutions recently.
Some forecast it can go up to 2000 USD/t 0z. Some expect meaningful strong correction in gold and other commodities in the near future. Some are waiting for correction to buy gold.
I think sometimes it is better to be bearish when others become bullish. Similarly it is better to be bullish when others become bearish. This method worked very well for investors who invested in Citi Bank and other financial stocks with good names and strong balance sheets recently. Now most people bullish on commodities such as gold, oil, corn, wheat even rice. However there are signs of appreciating US dollar against Euro, yen, NSD from recently. I think so far lower US dollar must have helped in some extent indirectly for favourable balance of trade in USA as a result of higher export income and lower import. Gradually Japanese carry traders are eying for US Dollar against yen. These trends will affects badly for gold prices including other commodities in the near future.
In addition we did not see any meaningful strong correction so far for commodity market unlike in stock market and real estate market through out the world in this great bull market for all type of assets.
989 points
rvilmur answered one year ago …
The answer is that there is no long term top for gold as long as paper money is not convertible into gold. There has never, in the history of the world, been a long term stable paper currency. Governments will run the printing presses when necessary to finance their budget defecits.
Since gold is a relatively scarce commodity, it takes only a modest rise in demand for the price to go up. When it goes up too fast, there will be the inevitable profit taking and moving back to paper currency. So expect positive gold runs and then pull backs before the next gold run.
How to time this. I don't know; but it makes sense to have part of your portfolio permanently in a gold bullion equivalent and then try to trade another part of your portfolio based on world tensions, news events, and technical analysis of the gold price.
One advisor who seems to have a good handle on gold technical analysis is David Nichols who writes the "Fractal Gold Report" published after each market day. You can search for an internet link using the name.
265 points
MaverickInvestor answered one year ago …
I’ve been looking at gold today. Here’s a snapshot into the way a technical trader thinks…
Non-farm payroll figures came in today from the US and are weaker than expected. Gold is still up around $909, and the June futures are suggesting there’s more upside to come in the short term.
However, it’s noteworthy that, in the last 2-3 weeks, the charts across the major time frames have fallen below a significant moving average, specifically…
1 Year - 14 day
2 Year - 30 day
5 Year, 8 Year & 10 year - 60 day
In most cases, the MA roughly coincided with the lower trend line, which has also been broken at around the $920 level.
Moving on to the weekly chart, we’re seeing a possible break of the supporting trend line, though this has yet to be confirmed.
On the daily chart right now, the price is trading below that support, and we’re also seeing a downturn and a crossing of the MA20 and the MA50. Finally, there’s a new upper trend line forming with current touch points at $1014, $950, $940 and $912. This new line of resistance intersects the next support level (at $885) on April 10th.
Summary - There’s more bearish signs than bullish right now, but the price action is working its way into a downward-facing pennant, and I’d be uncomfortable being in the market until it breaks out of it, one way or another. I’d expect this to happen on or around April 10th, which is next Thursday.
265 points
MaverickInvestor answered one year ago …
Sorry about the odd characters - that's the last time I cut and paste from my site!!
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546 points
warren answered one year ago …
Gold WILL go to $3000 by 2011 and probably more like $5000. Been saying that for years and people are finally kind of starting ti listen, but find it hard to belive still. Even near $1000 the miners will be extremely profitable, so imagine over $3000. It's going to make the tech bubble and all previous bubbles look small. Gte in now while you can, andnot near the end when everyone else is.
You need to realize Gold is in a huge strong uptrend and buy when it gets down like this. Instead of second guessing yourself. That's how to make money in a bull market trend. Buy the dips. You will know when it's over, things will be very crazy and extremely priced and everyone will be talking about it like it can't go down ever.
Just buy on the dips and don't wory...and DON'T USE MARGIN!!!
www.preciousmetalstockreview.com
380 points
SirCrashton answered one year ago …
Justin Litle, an editor for Taipan Publishing, believes that the recent decline of gold prices has to do with a short-term "relief" rally brought about by the perceived stabilization of the financial markets.
However, the impact of the tightening of credit and the Fed's inflationary monetary policy on consumers, resulting in higher prices for food, fuel, and other goods and services is just beginning to gain momentum. Gold prices are expected to consolidate and remain stable until consumers' reduced purchasing power and its effect on the economy becomes apparent by cutbacks in discretionary spending and credit card defaults. At that time, expect gold to continue its bullish trend beyond $1000.
4075 points
EthanR answered one year ago …
I recently heard that there is almost always a correlation between the price of oil and the price of gold, in which a barrel of oil will sell for approximately 10% of an ounce of gold. Therefore, $100 oil and $1000 gold make sense. So if we believe that gold will go to $3000 an ounce, as is suggested above, does that mean that oil is going to $300 a barrel? Just think how much fun driving will be at $10 a gallon of gasoline!
Read more from EthanR265 points
MaverickInvestor answered one year ago …
Ethan - we hardly need to imagine in the UK - we're already paying close to $8 now!
Also, for a contrary view on gold, check out http://www.goldpricecrash.com - I could use some support on there!
546 points
warren answered one year ago …
Good point Mav the states are living in fantasy land as far as oil prices go. Oil will be over $300 I guarantee that. Al the historic ratio is 15:1 for oil to gold.
Also Oil hit it's inflation adjusted high of $110 while Gold's is $2200 or so.
379 points
dustbusterz answered one year ago …
There was some serious talk about the sub prime mess continuing into 2010 and maybe even into early 2011 . If this occurs, I see a long term recession coming into play which would tend to make gold at 2000, look like a good possibility to me.
You might expect to see some pull backs along the way ,but , it is looking like this could play out .
Don't forget, we are facing the possibility of run away inflation which will dampen the economy even more than we have seen to this point.I see gold at 2000 as a real possibility, I'm not sure if I can see it at 3000 as Warren has pointed out.
