Oil at $150 a barrel?
That's the latest from the "analysts"...any takers?
Answers
105 points
tourima answered one year ago …
i find that completely plausible. I would say even $200 in the next 6-12 months is not far fetched at all.
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379 points
dustbusterz answered one year ago …
There is lots of talk about $10.00 Gas in the next 12 to 24 months.One of the reasons is Mexico. Their largest oil well has just dropped off like a rock off a cliff. This combined with Saudi oil wells running nearly at full bore (and they won't admit to the world that they are having trouble keeping up with demand) . We're in trouble in just a few years , if we don't get some alternative options in place, and soon like last year .
Russia was supposed to have all this oil now, but I just read where their oil supplies are even dropping faster than expected .
3680 points
MNSL answered one year ago …
I think in the long run Oil can go to up to $200. There is a possibility oil will go around $150 for very short period. After that we will see strong correction in the oil market including commodity market.
Even we can see bear market.
It is true there is a demand for oil. But 30% of present oil price is responsible for speculating.
Points to watch:
George Soros has warned: speculators are largely responsible for driving crude prices and record oil price looks like a bubble
Recently Soros said the oil bubble will not burst till both US and Britain are in recession.
Mean while Aircraft maker Boeing expects the price of oil to fall back to a long-term average of between US$70 and US$80 a barrel as result of lower demand for oil due to US and global economy slow down.
Lehman brothers warns that oil boom will deflate.
Lehman Brothers said the price of oil had been pushed to inflated levels by a $40bn inflow into commodity index funds this year, much of it coming from Mid-East sovereign wealth funds.
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Some hedge funds also speculating in oil market.
2172 points
ChaosNantuko answered one year ago …
Its interesting, because even if 30% of the current oil price is due to speculators, that puts the supply/demand portion of the price at around $91 a barrel, which is significantly higher then what it has been historically. If there has been a marked increase on what it should cost based on supply/demand, what has been done to fix it? I've heard a lot about renewables so far, but nothing too promising. A couple of oil fields are opening up here and there, but their production will be inconsequently for at least another couple years, and when we start seeing declining production at some of the major oil fields, the production from these new ones probably won't be able to keep up. It may be completely true that without speculators, the price of oil would be closer to $91. However, i can see both the supply/demand price of oil, and the "price of oil after speculation" approaching $200/barrel within the next 18-24 months, tops.
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103 points
GRT answered one year ago …
$150/bbl is possible and more realistic probable. Basic supply and demand only gets one to ~$90/bbl, devaluation of the dollar adds ~ $30/bbl and market fear makes up the rest. Remember that the price of oil is determined by the last barrel sold and how much someone wants that last barrel. Unless the dollar rebounds and we get world peace then oil will stay above $100/bbl and continue to rise.
Many changes have occurred in the market since the 1970s. Our major oil companies no longer control most of the oil in foreign countries with nationalization. China and India are just now developing their middle class so their energy needs will continue to climb and offset any reduction in the US market. We will see the US market continue to decline in its ability to influence the world energy market.
781 points
jillybeansisme answered one year ago …
Easily $150 - $200/barrel. And if we don't get in gear fast, $10/gallong seems very plausible. The news already talks of $8/gal by end of year. Even if demand becomes weakened, inflation and lack of supply will keep it skyrocketing.
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