White House's top economist says "no recession" for the US: Honest answer or just cheering for the hometeam?
Answers
141 points
gap answered one year ago …
It's recession when your neighbour loses his house and depression when you lose yours!...we're already into depression !...so choose any one of the following options
1 : He knows something I don't
2 : He does not know something I do
3 : We both do not know anything
4 : We both know but yet the top economist seems to have gone over the top
951 points
Grudun answered one year ago …
It is playing games with the rules and cheering for the home team.
According to the traditional rules it is not a recession until we have 2 quarters of negative GDP growth. And since there was 0.6% growth in the first quarter it won't offially be a recession until the end of the 3rd quarter(just in time for the election) or later. Also there has not been a significant rise in unemployment that is normally used as a secondary guage of a recession. But the GDP growth rate is being manipulated by the growth in the money supply and the resulting inflation. Since the government inflation number(which ignores food and energy the fastest moving components) is at 4% you realize that 0.6% growth is actually negative when inflation is factored in(maybe even the 4th quarter of last year as well) so the government and the Federal Reserve have cooked the numbers to keep it from being official.
The other half is that the White House has a responsibility to help increase economic growth and by saying its not a recession it is an attempt to improve consumer and bussiness sentiment making the recovery start sooner than later.
4075 points
EthanR answered one year ago …
If it looks like a duck, and sounds like a duck, and waddles like a duck, guess what it is?
Grudun is correct, we do not technically have a recession, but it sure as heck feels and looks like one. I hate to see what it will feel and look like if/when we do get two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. Maybe they need to change the definition! Quack Quack!
896 points
jillybeansisme answered one year ago …
I'd like to know what he's (the White House top economist) on . . . or maybe, just like Bush, he doesn't remember? Look folks, maybe you aren't paying about $4/gal for gas or milk, maybe your house value hasn't dropped 40%, maybe your electric hasn't gone up 19 times in the last few years, maybe your water bill hasn't skyrocketed, maybe your gas bill hasn't escalated, maybe . . . just maybe . . . your paycheck is keeping up with this "non-inflationary" economy . . . but I sincerely doubt it.
It is just propaganda by the White House (does Bush really think he can recover in the polls before his idiocy ends?). By the time we're told what we already know, we'll be on our way to recovery. Meanwhile, tighten those belts (maybe it's time for that diet) because prices are just going up. Even after "recovery" I expect EVERYTHING to remain at its then current level.
109 points
pow453 answered one year ago …
The truth is, we can not depend on any economic numbers coming from the government as being accurate. During the Reagan years the gov. changed the rules for counting unemployment--ever since only the people collecting unemployment checks are counted--if you are not collecting--you are not counted. Two years ago the Federal Reserve stopped printing M3 money supply--we have no idea how many dollars are in circulation. Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy. The list goes on. We must question all numbers by finding out what they are using as a yardstick.
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