Historically after every Great War a Great Depression occurs. Are we there yet?
No one realized The Great War was WWI until WW2 came along which didn't end with the A-bombs- That marked a half-time event so Truman could force Russian troops out of Turkey or they'd get bombed too. So WW2/Cold War finally ended with Berlin Wall. Next up; GD2 Global population expansion began in 1796 w/discovery of Vitamins&Cowpox cure
Since then global socio-economic upheavals have occured every 3 generations (66.6yrs)
for when the 4th generation arrives, you have newborn and aged, neither of whom works.
This is the straw that breaks the economies back like CLOCKWORK every 3 generations.
Years are 1863, 1929.8 and 2007.5 when 1st real estate investment bank failed June'07
1993 Solar Mortality Theory "If your mom's born during a solar reversal, you WILL die of cancer" This sun-synchronizes the human race to grow in 22.2yr generation wavelets until
arrival of 4th generation whereupon support of both aged and newborn destroys economy.
Answers
283 points
ChuckF answered one year ago …
Your argument seems to be more about demographic shifts, as opposed to war. The only question I'd put to you is why did you ignore some of the more dramatic crashes in between the ones you mentioned?
The 70's were horrible for business and the consumer.
The 2001 - 2003 bear market was the worst thing we had seen since the depression.
So I'm not really sure if your examples hold water.
Anybody else have any thoughts on this?
951 points
Grudun answered one year ago …
I think the war portion of the idea is just playing with statistics, combining WW-2 and the cold war for a 40-odd year war doesn't really make sense, but if you look at Vietnam that correlates to ChuckF's horrible 70's.
The generational shift I think does make sense although the changes in generation length throughout the world based on economics is creating interesting conflicts. In the old world industrialized nations the generation length has increased significantly except among the immigrant populations creating huge demographic shifts that are creating instability(look at the riots that break out in France and the effects of illegal immigration in the US) and difficult problems for government(appeal to traditional areas of support or those more likely to be there in the future).
As far as the 4th active generation sinking the economy, if a society has 2 nonworking generations(young and old) and 2 working generations(new worker and older workers) most nations can generate the required goods and services, the problem is more likely in a period of only 3 generations where only 1 works.
2775 points
Oldman answered one year ago …
Another explanation is the "back-testing" and "selection" of data. Or, the you could look at Tufte's books on the cyclical events of history, worldwide. Or, you could say that the person's questions have a singfularly "Western" bias...during the periods mentioned, some areas flourished, while others declined.
Chartists love to talk about Kondratieff and "cycles. Economists (with their ambidesterous projections) like to talk about cash cycles; meterorologists - about 25 year hurricane cycles...etc. If you were in Homestead, FL, in 1992 - BEFORE the latest "high frequency" hurricane cycle began 1n 1995, you realize that it only takes one. If you fell for one of these cycle schemes and invested with Ponzi, you know the feeling.
Countries with lots of young have problems feeding them; those with lots of elderly have problems wiping them, too. Those with both, have not so many daycare problems.
