If commodity markets become weak which countries and currencies will be affected most?

Oldman answered one year ago …

I agree with "trader"s assessment, with regards to currencies, but I think the question is too broadly framed. Commodities for industrial purposes (oil, steel) move differently from "soft commodities" (grains,cocoa)...and these move differently than inflation-hedge commodities (gold, silver) or strategic commodities (uranium, rare metals). So if you trade (speculate) in commodities, there's always a sector that has a nifty appeal.

However, the countries whose exports support their currencies will suffer the most: Malaysia, Brazil, Canada, Australia, Indonesia, while countries with a huge current account deficit (U.S., &Dev. Euro & Japan) will "benefit more". I put "benefit more" in quotations, because their deficits are so large from over 30 years of printing money, that I believe it really won't help their global prospects.

The move of the funds from large positions of hedge, investment banks and some pension funds, in the U.S, U.K., and offshore investors, when commodities appeared to be "going hyperbolic', last month, was due in part to the SEC & FTC beginning to look at "speculation" in these markets, and also to the necessity to capitalize financial asset holdings by large investment banks.

I don't believe in conspiracy theories, I do believe ther has been a lot of "me-too" investments, just as there are "me-too" drug marketing...and you can see that it hasn't helped big pharma, in the long run.