How long is this rally going to last?
Answers
2633 points
MNSL answered 4 months ago …
Lot people made a lot money on the short side through out the world. I think we are going to see a short term bounce.
This is a long-overdue rally on the market’s oversold condition. There may be volatility in the side way market like today. However, I strongly believe some companies and sectors will outperform markets in the next 18 months due to change of currency trend and commodity market trend through out the world including USA.
I believe times to times there will be strong rally in selected sectors and companies in USA. Some Asian markets will outperform other market in next 18 months. However, commodity oriented countries will underperform in next 02 years. Global investors will benefit most.
Investors who identified in advance can reap maximum benefits. Recently contrarian and value investors out performed the markets through out the world. To my surprise, recently even top oil investors invested in different sectors including Airlines sectors instead of oil stocks.
288 points
CG answered 4 months ago …
It will last until tomorrow, then a few days of profit taking. I'll short SPG ahead of its earnings pre-market Friday since the market will be due to sell off after a strong week or so upwards.
After this correction, a rally perhaps into mid-August then a massive selloff into October.
If the market fails to post large gains today, that's a sign of greater weaknesss than I'm expecting.
202 points
Lobo answered 4 months ago …
How long? How long? If only we knew. We still have the economic problems that brought us to this point, don't we? Pumping money into the economy and big banks, etc, seems to be crisis management efforts, but in the morning we wake up to more bad mortgages along with raging inflation seemingly sure to come...and yet historically the markets thrive when interest rates are low. And isn't progress being made by banks, some of them, to better prepare for the worst that may be yet to come? ---Oh, my indecision is sickening!
Is this rally something like a man in a deep coma that now manages to slightly raise one tremblling eyebrow? It beats the heck out of his lying there comatose, but the 10 doctors hastily called in will have to watch awhile before their 12 opinions converge maybe---still, some signs are good. If oil prices go down and stay down we might be able to take our patient off of life support, but he ain't ready to go dancing. Now that we've rallied a bit, what happens when those who have waited for the breakeven point rush to sell and avoid those long feared losses? Even taking a profit here is not so unreasonable. Do new confident buyers appear and prices continue up? I think I'll study the charts of foundamentally sound companies for any technical clues of timing.
I suppose I've just asked questions every trader must answer in any market...but I'm firm about being indecisive here! To those writing a more definite answer to this question, I solemnly promise to read every prediction with great interest...before I disregard them. (But, hey, maybe you have the gem of wisdom I/we are looking for.)
192 points
BryanPerry answered 4 months ago …
The conventional thinking believes the move up in stocks during the past few days is simply an oversold bounce within an officially-declared bear market. That's how the crowd and The Street sees it, anyway, and until the economic reports tell us otherwise, converting bears to bulls will take just short of a miracle.
But we've seen over and over again that the market can surprise us and it's possible that one of these short-covering oversold bounces could be more than just bearish pause. It's a long-shot, but it's possible, though I'm not betting on it.
My money, quite literally, is on the bet that this is a short-term opportunity and my strategy right now is taking any and all profits when they come—letting gains ride is a dangerous proposition in this environment.
176 points
musti answered 4 months ago …
Rally - which rally? It looks like it has stalled already. Or do we now see a correction of an upward correction?
Anyway, if CG's verifiable forecast comes out I will invite him for a big dinner.
245 points
Dusty answered 4 months ago …
July 31--08:40: I wish I knew; I peeked at the opening charts and with yesterday in mind, the rally seems to be history. It is the end of the month and there are buyers and sellers for reasons that do not really involve what is really going on with stocks. Balance sheets have to look good; managers have to be able to show that they are trying to improve their accounts or funds; the rent has to be paid.
Supposedly there will be a major drop in August, 2nd and 3rd weeks (do your own Voodoo Spells to check THAT out!) and it is TIME!!!
Even if the drop happens, it will not be THE bottom by a long shot. A March Equivalent is due at the end of 3rdQ, mortgage/financial/housing not past it's collapse stage until about New Year's.
I am waiting for lowest near-future prices for my few pennies of cash's benefit. Essential services, funds (I like global CLE's, with caution), Canada utilities and trusts (its not USD's) all with dividends.
245 points
Dusty answered 4 months ago …
Ref: Previous post, typo: not CLE. try CEF. Sorry.
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