What’s your view on the price of oil? Will oil fall below $100 per barrel this year?
Or are we heading back toward $140?
Answers
273 points
TBone answered 4 months ago …
I think we're heading to $200.
Let this situation with Iran continue to escalate, demand across the globe continue to climb (especially in China and India) and the oil companies will continue to "not find" new oil reserves, that spells a perfect recipe for oil continuing to rise. This is all speculation on my part, but quite frankly I'll be happy if it keeps going up. It'll finally force this country (forget that, this WORLD) to start REALLY exploring alternative sources of energy.
Prices stay high and we might finally shake our oil addiction and with it, our dependence on the mid east. Then we can finally shape up our politics in this country.
Sorry, I know that was off topic but it had to be said :)
581 points
jillybeansisme answered 4 months ago …
Everyone is complaining about the cost of gas here at $4/gal =/-. Let's not forget that most of Europe pays twice that or more. Let's not forget that nobody twisted your arm to buy a vehicle that is a gas guzzler. I think it's shameful that we have to pass legislation to get car manufacturers to build vehicles that are not gas hogs . . . these vehicles should get 50 mpg.
I also think it is shameful that my tax dollars are going to bail out bankrupt banks and people who don't use credit wisely. (OK, not everyone is a new homeowner that was duped). Let them fail and let the strong survive.
Now that I have ranted, I think the current drop in price is politics and that it is headed higher by the end of the year. It seems like it is always higher at the end of the year and I believe it will push through the $140 level you asked about. I expect it'll go to the $160ish level. I base this on Middle East issues combined with current government's desire to push for drilling in the US. Raise the prices til the people give in to drilling rather than doing what's right and getting alternative energy quickly.
2633 points
MNSL answered 4 months ago …
I think sooner than later commodity prices including oil will come down. Commodity countries will hit hard.
In the long run oil prices can go up. That also depends on the growth rate of the world economy and invention of alternative fuel. In next 02 years we will see slower growth in following countries:
The USA
China
UK
Australia
Canada
New Zealand
India
As a result of this there will be less demand for oil and commodities. However we will see some rallies in the stocks market time to time in some of the above markets. There will be strong growth in some sectors. Therefore some companies will benefit most in next 02 years.
No country will grow straight up. Even in the USA we had a market crash despite industrial revolution. In the case of China they have to sort out environment problem first. Otherwise growth will come down. It is happening now.
Now China is restricting driving and shutting down factories. Beijing will also shut down a further 105 polluting factories. In the meantime Tianjin city and Hebei province will close 117 plants if the weather deteriorates. I think they have given preference to Olympic game now.
USA is the largest oil consumer in the world. Slower growth will reduce demand for oil.
In addition consumers and other users are not ready pay higher prices for certain commodities including oil now. Really commodity market is very hot now. Almost all the countries have taken steps to reduce oil wastage and they are consuming carefully now. Their main priority is controlling inflation.
Finally US dollar will go up in the 2nd half this year.
Due to above facts I strongly believe commodity prices including oil will come down sharply. We also in bubble stage now. Every bubble will end up with burst. It is a fact.
I have a doubt how these all etfs, banks, hedge funds; speculators are going to make profit at the same time in the commodity market. There are so many instruments in the market. If everybody becomes panic what will happen to the commodity market? Some will lose at the end of this commodity bubble. Therefore we should take wise decisions now it self. Otherwise commodity market will end up just as property market.
119 points
Noam answered 4 months ago …
With global oil demand increasing , almost all major oilfields in decline (Ghawar, Cantarell etc) and no major cheap oil discoveries in recent years, the direction for oil is clearly up.
If you think there is any demand destruction in the US, think again.
Wherever you live, have you noticed more vacant parking spaces, less traffic jams etc??
I havn't.
With petrol selling at about $9 a gallon in Europe, demand in the US will hardly change at $4 a gallon.
726 points
alanj answered 4 months ago …
I'd say higher. It looks as if oil is possibly on the verge of reversing and heading backup. I follow the ETF oil services DIG. It is currently over sold and looks as if it is in the early stages of a reversal. If it heads lower in the next couple of days ,but no lower or much lower than the recent low of $81.92 I'm buying.
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dancindiver answered 3 months ago …
I have been working in the oil industry for 34 years.
I can see oil down to $100 a barrel this year perhaps.
In the long run it will be over $100 and higher.
Supply is short and demand increases.
The dollar is worth 1/2 of what it was and with prices near double
on many things, gas at $4 is going to be the norm. or higher.
The US economy is in a crash mode. If the USA doesn't stop wasting money on wars we
should not be in are solving nothing, the dollar will soon be worth little to nothing.
I might be wisw to invest in other currencies and think about moving.
Sad but true the popular vote means nothing, ask Gore about that he had
over 500,000 more than Bush. The national dept has tripled, inflation and devalued dollar along with high prices are killing us. The property values falling for another year or 2.
The judicial system is a joke, we put Martha Stewert in jail for selling some stocks, and let child molesters M. Jackson and murderers O.J. go free.
What is wrong with this picture?
My advice put your money into other currencies, gold and real estate in other counrties.
Moving there would be a good idea too, unless you want to ride a dead horse ( USA ) into the gruond.
Good time to look at the whole picture and make a move.
237 points
BoxCar answered 3 months ago …
Mar'06 Gen Oil of Canada acquired a US Patent on how to generate Cheap Oil at the
Wellhead in a depleted oil field. Big Oil has responded with a campaign to discredit
Gen Oil as unable to deliver on this promise and have not cooperated with Gen Oil.
Result is Gen Oil stock has plummeted and they are going overseas to China/India
Point is, BIG OIL doesn't want to see oil at less than $100 because they own more oil
reserves in North America than in Mid-East but it costs $50 to mine or dig it out. When it costs more to transport oil from mid-east than to mine shell oil & tar sands
then oil prices will stabilize. At what point that is I dunno' but you can bet its >$100
393 points
jester112358 answered 3 months ago …
The only reason oil and other commodities have gone down slightly from their highs is the temporary decrease in demand caused by the Chinese shutting down factories, reducing driving and production during the Olympics, combined with central bank intervention on the behalf of the dollar (buying dollars selling other currencies). The dollar, however, will continue its long term downward trend because of the huge debt being accumulated by the US government. Since oil is priced in dollars it will continue to appreciate relative to the dollar. Any bad news from the mid-east or Russia will just add to the oil premium. Consider the high probability of the bombing by Israel of Iran, for example. Iran is the third largest oil exporter.
Read more from jester112358 flag as abuse great answer373 points
dustbusterz answered 3 months ago …
ok lets address this Iran thing that TBone talks about. I read the other day where Iran is sitting down with the us to hash out this Nuclear weapons issue. So that should bring down tensions in the region . There are countries over there, that have traditionally been at odds with each other. Again, I'm hearing about some co-operation between nations who normally wouldn't work well together. Another sign ,tensions should dissipate in the area. This should bode well for the oil situation , and that should help bring down oil prices. However, don't jump the gun too quickly , cause we still have an active hurricane season to worry about. That said, I think maybe not by the end of this year, but could happen early part of next , we could see cheaper oil.
MNSL talks about china shutting down factories. this isn't so much to clear air permanently as it is to clear the air till the Olympics are over. once thats done, those factories will be reopened. It has to affect their economy though, cause many people out of work for months and companies not able to make any money during this time period.
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