What would be your number 1 long term stock investment right now (10+ year holding period)??
Additional Information:
I guess I meant more in terms of a safe & secure stock, something that will be around in 10 - 20 years that I could just sock away in a drawer.
Answers
299 points
thinker70 answered 3 months ago …
This is a tough one, the choice is between a SPECULATIVE pick that could possibly not pan out, OR, a stellar track record that indicates stability, dividends and growth that SHOULD continue well into the future.
With that clear definition of choices I will submit one in each category.
As a speculative pick to buy up to $3.00 I would recommend Global Star, (GSAT) a sattelite based communications company with an interesting history. Like many technology companies requiring HUGE initilal investments of capital, it ended up in bankruptcy and was revived by a deep pocketed entrepreneur who reognized the potentiai! With an IPO price around $18. it traded down to the $10.. range and then with subsequent financings that were misunderstood by the market, went as low as $2.00 which triggered millions in insider buying, much of it by the principal shareholder. In the interests of full disclosure, my son is the operations manager of the company and we BOTH hold a small stake in the company at present. Over a 3-5 year period the Co has a reasonable chance to return to its IPO price or higher, but be sure to do your own research and due diligence, we could be wrong in that assessment!
For a well known and established company I would pick another G, this time GoldCorp. which has been sold off with the recent drop in commodity prices making it a screaming BUY in my view. The GoldCorp story is an fascinating one and even though the chief architect of its stellar growth, (Rob McEwan now trying to duplicate that success with a new entry, U.S. Gold)) the fact is GoldCorp has continued its growth under new leadership.
My reasoning is simple, they have a GREAT PIPLINE and history of boosting reserves and history of smart acquisitions As mntioned in an earlier post regarding Terrane Metals listed on the TSX as TRX, their stock is 58% held by GoldCorp so an eventual buyout by GoldCorp is a distinct possibility and therfore less speculative than Terrane even though good profits may well be made on the way up to a takeover point!!
While probably a minority viewpoint, I believe that the current financial fiasco in the U.S. brought about by EXCESSIVE issuance of phony money (FIAT) will result in the U>S> dollar continuing to falll as sub-prime mortgage write=offs, DEFICITS and unsustainable expenditures send GOLD at least to its 1980 inflation adjusted price of (approx,) $21000. Considering the HISTORY of GoldCorp with the excellent growth and dividend record, and rich pipline I consider it one of the best positioned Gold companies tp benefit from such a scenario developing over the next 2-3 years! Myron Martin
299 points
thinker70 answered 3 months ago …
It seems that every company, even blue chips have their ups and downs during a typical business cycle. In that time period there may be changes in management, changes in the marketplace so predictingn 10 years out is a leap of faith that for the most part cann only be based on the companys PREVIOUS track record, measured against CURRENT prospects and leadership!
It is a pretty safe bet that in the next ten years there will be tremendous growth in alternative energy, wind, solar, geothermal, nuclear as well as synthetic fuel from coal etc. Based on its history and thr selloff over the past year I think that GENERAL ELECTRIC who has entered these markets in a big way with some breakthrough technologies in these fields is a SCREAMING BUY! If there is a blue chip out there that has the potential to achieve future successes equal or even greater than its previous stellar track record it is GE! Several analysts have recently been climbing on their bandwagon with good reason and I AGREE that few blue chips have a better buypoint at present. Myron Martin
102 points
mrchillman answered 3 months ago …
GENERAL MOTORS! GM! i think it will surpass Toyota in the next 5 or 6 years easily
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2703 points
MNSL answered 3 months ago …
It is very difficult question to answer. I think you can find stocks with long-term value more than 10 years in the following sectors.
Food sector
Manufacturing sector including motorcar and amphibious boat manufactures
Financial sector (you have to be selective now)
Leisure and hotel sector
Health sector
Energy sector (You have to be selective now and in the future)
I think both general motors and Toyota will have long-term value provided oil prices stay around $70 level. As these companies are innovative, they will produce fuel efficiency and small cars targeting bigger customer base in the future. At least these companies will have bigger market share for the next 10 years. However, we will have to do thorough research about competitions from other car manufactures and new comers in the next 10 years, invention of viable low cost energy, demand and supply etc.
According to latest world energy sources oil will stay around $70 level or below until 2015. Thereafter they expect to go up rapidly.
In addition, there will be demand and long-term value for amphibious boats for the next 10 years.
It is very difficult to identify undervalue stocks in some of the above sectors even now through out the world.
169 points
Future1investor answered 3 months ago …
I left the corporate world to work for myself in the markets. But before I left I made note of something quite significant. The company had mostly a college aged staff of around 150 in my office, and we helped colleges and universities around the world market to potential customers who where soon to be graduating from high school who needed quality students for their admissions.
I left the office at lunch to eat out. This was my stress relief each day. 85% of the rest of the office ate out also. My group was fond of eating good food and from time to time we'd invite others along.
When ever a new invitee would meet us at the elevators to go to our cars the same exact question was asked each and every time: "Does this place we're going take credits cards?" My reply would always be..'why?' To which the answer was: "Because I never carry cash!"
So my mental note was <Credit Cards>
Now take a look at MasterCard (MA) http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ma&hl=en
Click the chart for Max view and you'll see that it IPO'd in June 2006. From then until now, its stock has gone up 411.08% which is today's figure. All in just over two years and not in a speculative way; not in a penny stock way either. Thats a solid gain which will only continue to the point of discomfort. By that I mean look at Google which is highly valued now at over $460 but was $700 at the beginning of the year. My point is, in five to ten years, you'll see solid gains here. Google itself is just ten years old and buying anywhere near the first year would reward you handsomely.
Now Visa IPO'd just this year and although Visa has more market cap than MasterCard, it is a very good bet that Visa will mimic the performance of MasterCard.
What single item is used by more people each and every day one or more times per day sometimes? Credit cards! Every swipe is money in the bank for Visa who does not have anything to do with the credit crisis of mortgage backed securities or anything else bank-wise. Banks must pay Visa for each transaction process. This is how Visa makes its money.
I've even seen people pay for $2 items with their credit card simply because they do not carry cash! Swipe Swipe Swipe Swipe...all the way to the bank.
Visa is a good long term holding. Pretty much there is nothing to think about, just buy your shares and bank it away. This is a good time to buy too while the economy is slowed. Once things get back to normal, both Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA) will be making new heights while the other stocks play the roller coaster ride.
To me Visa is a no brainer. I myself have $20,000 worth and I never think about it day to day and just go on with the rest of my trading.
I do hope this was useful for you,
Future1investor
102 points
othoschild answered 3 months ago …
For a ten-year hold, the stock must represent the unquestioned bestof-breed in a sector that has great odds of strong growth for a decade or more...My two candidates would be Google and VISA. They both dominate their sectors and should continue to do so. The world of search (and the monetization of same) still has a long way to go. And the international growth for the VISA debit card should be outstanding at least for 10 more years, if not 20 years.
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