What's your Top Trade for next week?
Again, tell us why, what your holding period is and for a "bonus", discuss some of the RISKS, potential downside and what an investor could do to MITIGATE those risks.
Best Answer
BryanPerry answered 3 months ago …
I just established a basket of options trades that is a play on the impending fireworks that Israel is increasingly likely to rain down on Iran. I believe a certain time line for an attack is already set, and there are several firms that stand to profit from it, and one airline that will greatly suffer because of it.
It's been reported in defense-related news sources that there is an increasing "probability" that the Israeli Air Force will soon strike Iran's nuclear facilities. The strikes -- if they take occur -- will be far more destructive than what occurred in 1981 during the strike against Iraq's Osirak nuclear facility.
The impending strikes will target far more than the nuclear sites, and any efforts to deactivate Iran's nuclear facilities will take about a week to accomplish.
The Israelis know that for political reasons, they must carry it out this year because no one knows who will be United States' president next year. They also understand this has to be done as a regime change. If they want this to be successful, they can't just go in and take out the nuke sites at random.
And it does not end there.
Israel must combat an extremely hostile Hezbollah right now. The Golan Heights will surely erupt and many parts of Israel will come under massive attack from Northern Lebanon if this situation unfolds.
There's another element to this situation: Why, all of a sudden, did a Putin-run Russia storm into Georgia like a 15-year-old bully into a toddler's sandbox?
Because of Russia's massive investment in Iran's oil industry. Not to mention that Russia is probably its most important geopolitical partner with the most to lose if Israel blasts its nuclear infrastructure off the map.
I wanted to create a basket trade that was poised to respond favorably to this series of forecast events I described above.
If Israeli F15 and F16 fighters unleash all hell on Iran, then I expect a few changes in the financial markets.
First, the price of oil will spike by as much as $50 per barrel. Second, the price of gold will vault by $100 per troy ounce. Third, shares of America's largest defense contractor will jump by 20 points and, fourth, the one publicly traded airline with high route exposure to the Middle East will tank by 50%.
All of this makes for a compelling 'Bombs Over Iran' trading strategy available to all ChangeWave Tactical Trader subscribers. It's a four-component basket trade that I expect to yield 200%+ returns if the story plays out.
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