According to the Wall Street Journal, China has a "murky" future - what do you think about that?

Oldman answered 3 months ago …

China's GDP is much less than the single state of California!

But its population's increasing movement into the cities and the increase in its commodity utilization rates are much greater than any other country's. So the Murk is based upon pollution and water deficits, shipping and transit problems and the inflationary increase. Its cheap labor factories are being shuttered as the outsourcing moves to Vietnam and other, lower-wage sweat shop countries.

It needs to import oil, coal, and iron ore at tincreasing rates to build the infrastructure, but the rail lines can't handle the trains, and the electric plants can't keep up with demand, even when there's a normal winter..

The secondary Murk, is the level of governmental (central committee control) incompetence. The people who decree haven't much experience with the outcomes, and following Western-influenced economic theories is no fail-safe...the Chinese Govt. holds huge amounts of U.S., British, French IOU's that have decreased in value since they were purchased. These bond holdings are dropping in value, because of the decrease in the purchasing power of the "foreign" currency.

The tertiary Murk, is the increase in consumer demand, driven by the Media ads for autos, furniture,
beef, Starbucks, etc...every investment prospect looks at a "Billion + " market, and forgets that a consumer-driven economy is vulnerable to commodity, shipping and longevity problems. For an example, look at what's happened in Japan, over the past 25 years.

Finally, there's the Quartenary Murk, the stifling of any thing that might upset the weltanshaung (world outlook) of the current govt. The "enterprise" must not threaten the ... so innovation and upsets are squashed. There are a lot of home-grown and brilliant minds there, but they put them into the Party or the committee on controlling the media, or some other bureauocratic and stultifying role. So they waste the creativity, except for "safe" outlets in the arts or biomedical sciences.