i am in a short position on BHP, what are the chances it will go down and to which price in the next 7-14 days
billition ltd
Answers
2703 points
MNSL answered 3 months ago …
I think share prices of BHP gradually will come down in the next 18 months together with more volatility. It is better to make profit in volatility.
Mining companies will take years to recoup billions of dollars in investment on new projects because the worldwide boom in commodity prices is going to collapse and costs are rising.
Share Prices of Some mining companies are gradually coming down due to higher cost and falling commodity prices.
You have taken wise decision. You can see fall of share prices this week.
3127 points
EthanR answered 3 months ago …
Benisha, this one is tricky. I see both pros and cons technically to your short position. I will lay out what I am seeing, but you are the one who needs to decide what is best (i.e. whether to take profits or let the position ride)
Pro: Stock is in a down trend, and the 50 day moving average looks like it may be about to cross over the 200 day M.A. Stochastic is at 80/74, which means that the recent bounce from $63 to $71 may have taken the wind out the stock's sails.
Con: RSI is rising, up from 30 a week or two ago. MACD just put in a buy signal, crossing over the signal line. Stock is now in a bullish pattern on the Point & Figure charts, with a double top breakout on August 20th, and a preliminary bullish price objective of 86.
It is unusual to see such conflicting technical indicators, and I am curious to see how other Tickerhounds would weigh the pros and cons here.
1786 points
ChaosNantuko answered 3 months ago …
I'd say its going to go down.
reasons:
stock is in a downtrend
stock seems to be moving downwards off a bounce from the 30 day moving average
stochastics just became overbought, but stochastics tend to stay overbought for a shorter period of time when stocks are in a downtrend
the MACD histogram is moving downwards
the upwards movement wasn't on above average volume, even though earnings were released.
using candlestick charting, the 21st seems to have been a "doji", indicating uncertainty, and the day after was a down day, confirming a change of direction.
I think it will go down, probably to between 60 and 65, in the next 7-14 days. May happen sooner, but thats my expected time span. A key thing to look for is how it reacts when it approaches the previous low. if it gets to 63, and then starts coming back up, then cover the short. If it breaks through 63, then move your stop loss to 63, and hold it as it falls lower.
Even with this bearish prognosis, i would strongly advise putting a stop loss in around 71.50
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