It seems like we're starting to turn a corner in this economy/market - temporary or a real turnaround?

EthanR answered 3 months ago …

TBone, I think it is a mistake to assume the worst is over. Housing sales are only up month over month from June to July. Year over year they are a disaster, and a little birdy tells me that the August numbers will be down from July.

Oil is down from its highs, but I think the jury is still out on whether it will stay down. Just because gas has fallen from the absurd to the ridiculous doesn't mean people will suddenly have money.

There is talk of more bank failures, rumors of a coming crash in both commercial loan defaults and consumer credit defaults. Natural gas prices are predicted to rise this winter and the almanac is calling for a particularly cold winter!

So IMHO, we are in a temporary blip, with more pain to come. I would like to see the S&P 500 rise above its 200 day moving average, currently about 1360, to believe that the market is turning around. The reality is at 1,266, the S&P is closer to the most recent low of 1,234 than to the 200 day moving average.