Where do you think the Dow will bottom out at? 10,000? 9,000? Lower!?
Answers
957 points
CUWu answered one year ago …
Well this rally today was (for lack of a better word) RETARDED! Everybody thinks Paulson is going to come save the day but in the end all he'll really do is use US tax dollars to finance financial services companies that don't know how to manage their risk.
It's a scary thought that your tax dollars and my tax dollars will be used to keep terrible managers in business.
I know that was slightly off topic but I couldn't help myself. And basically, if the market's going to rally off of this news, it just shows how desperate everybody is to hold onto the hope of some type of 'soft landing'. Desperation breeds panic though, and that's exactly what we're headed for soon enough. A financial panic like we haven't seen since the 1970's.
So my guess is the Dow will break 10,000 on the downside sometime in the next 6 months.
3963 points
MNSL answered one year ago …
I think Dow will break 10,000 on the downside in October before we see year end rally.
If we hear more bad news it will come down before October.
Selected sectors and companies will outperform the market.
3963 points
MNSL answered one year ago …
Further to my earlier answer, I like to update my answer:
Positive factors:
If the U.S. government starts planning new laws to halt the credit-market, meltdown and U.K. and American regulators crack down on short sellers then I do not think Dow will come down below 10,000. Instead, it will break even 13,000 sooner than later.
Banning short selling of financial shares in UK will help the market.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke proposed moving troubled assets from the balance sheets of financial companies into a new institution also would lift the market
In addition, US dollar will appreciate against most of the currencies and even speculative money from commodity market will come back to the stock market.
Further, I think some acquisition will take place due to lower asset prices in the USA now.
Overall, there will be some positive development in the markets worldwide surprise to many.
251 points
MichaelShulman answered one year ago …
Don't these rallies fool you: I see the market moving further down from here, and I think by year-end, or even sooner, we'll slip as low as 9,600.
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112 points
helmuto2021 answered one year ago …
IMHP, the governments move will shore up the value of the dollar, and put the entire US market into a bullish trend vs global markets - which are going down. The Euro has been too expensive for too long. This will start happening after the election in November regardless of who wins. The lack of interest and intellectual impotence of the current administration has contributed to this situation. What is required more than anything at this time is a steady hand that builds confidence and rationality on the part of both sides of the transaction - investors and corporate institutions.
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MNSL answered one year ago …
I agree with helmuto 2021. We will see year end rally after election surprise to many. Really Euro is overvalued now.
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102 points
walter77777 answered one year ago …
Disaster is at hand! We may see a year-end rally, but the long-term (and also very long-term) trend is down. We have a very bad economy just now, but thsi is only the beginning of the problem with stocks. We also have coming over the next decade the retirement of the baby boomers who will want to cash in the mutual funds and stocks in their IRAs and 401(k)s to buy annuities to fund their retirements. This will result in even more decline in the stock markets.
I see the stock market falling out of bed next year, but the crash will only herald a prolonged decline to below Dow 1,000 between the years 2012 and 2014.
I worry. I sell stocks and mutual funds, and I buy ultrashort ETFs. All longs should pray that I am wrong.
W.
379 points
dustbusterz answered one year ago …
walter77777, i truly believe you are WRONG about the Baby Boomers Bringing trouble to the markets by selling their shares. First, they won
t want to sell everything they own as they will just tap into it for needed funds (for housing,utilities ,food etc. ) but most of this will already be paid for with other monies,, so it will be a trickle out of the stocks.
Second, as the economy begins its slow dig out of this mess, we will have plenty of new money from both the younger people here in America, and as other nations see our recovery coming on,they will want some of this action as well. Personally, I believe the stock market will be fine once we can get past all the mess we have now. It certainly won't be a quick rise(maybe somewhat in the beginning) but it should slowly gain traction.
