What can we expect if McCain / Palin wins the election?

Answers

perezumaran answered a question in Latest News.
102 points

perezumaran answered 3 months ago …

They will save the nation from the communist influence that the democrats have.

Andres Perez

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BryanPerry answered a question in Latest News.
195 points

Education Partner

BryanPerry answered 3 months ago …

I don't know that we'll get that far.

Politically, there are several things at work. The market may be resigned to an Obama win, which could translate into higher taxes for investors. I also think that once it sinks in that McCain, at 72 years old, didn't go with Mitt Romney, Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida, or another high-profile Republican with more-established credentials, it will be hard for the market to rally in the near term.

But certainly that could all change if more is understood about Obama's higher tax plan and whether it will succeed against a backdrop of stocks and indexes that are squarely in a bear market, and/or if Palin wins the trust of a significant segment of the Republican Party and the electorate in general.

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Sensei answered a question in Latest News.
209 points

Sensei answered 3 months ago …

Trying to predict the impact of anything arising from a Presidential Election is a useless exercise. When this president was first elected the decision wasn't made on the basis of who you'd want in the job if terrorists attacked the World Trade Centre. Unforeseen circumstances can seriously change the priorities. Having said that though, in my view, there are some expectations that we can project as likely.

First, the demagoguery of the Democrats notwithstanding, and regardless of whether you liked or hated Bush/Cheney, McCain/Pailin will not be anything like them. As a small example of this, you'd never have seen George Bush sponsoring legislation alongside Ted Kennedy or Russ Feingold. For better or worse (depending on your political stripe) John McCain is no George Bush. There will be changes in a variety of areas, including fiscal policy

Second, I believe the Iraq issue will be "ancient history" before this presidency is over. There may be "boots on the ground" nearby, but those "boots" will be more like S. Korea, Kuwait and Taiwan - not like Afghanistan. That will mean billions of dollars in "cost savings" that will be able to be used for more productive purposes like education, infrastructure (those falling bridges), border security, (tax) incentives to develop new sources of energy - or whatever your agenda issue is. Both McCain and Obama will benefit from this.

Third, I think McCain is easily more fiscally conservative than Bush (then again, who isn't?) which means less money being wasted (if such a thing can be said of any government) and more available for the kinds of things I've already mentioned.

The left-wing media would like to minimize Palin's experience, but she's been a municipal leader, mayor of her town and governor of her state. Albeit that she's only been governor for two years, that term and her time as mayor gives her a level of "executive" experience that Biden doesn't have and that Obama will never have. Being a senator doesn't give you executive experience ... it gives you legislative experience. Being a mayor and / or a governor gives you both. Sitting on the Finance Committee doesn't give you business acumen; running the company - even for two years - does.

In short, I think the Republican ticket is better positioned to deal with economic issues.

What about from a general fiscal perspective? I think Obama/Biden will be disastrous for the US for reasons of policy and circumstance ...

First, notwithstanding the fact that this is probably the worst Congress in US history and should be completely replaced, it looks like Democrats will have control of both Houses. This means Obama will have virtually unfettered power to do whatever he wants. The "checks and balances" will, for all intents and purposes, disappear. It isn't a matter of being "veto-proof". He won't need to veto anything. The Congress will pass the very kind of legislation he'll sign without a moment's thought.

Second, Obama is the most liberal Senator in government. He has a "conservative rating" of 0. Along with that comes "tax and spend". And there is no end of what he wants to spend on. For example, Universal Health Care will not work for a myriad of reasons I don't have time to list. Even The Great Hillary Clinton - with her husband in office and a Democrat Congress - couldn't get that done. Yes, we have it in Canada ... but American's won't pay the kind of taxes we pay here to have it.

Third, you can't spend you way out of a deficit. Where will the money come from?

"We'll get out of Iraq and save that money!" Sure. And what happens when Iran walks in? Whose going to stop them? The UN? Europe? Russia? Don't hold your breath.

"We'll increase taxes. We'll levy windfall profits taxes on oil companies!" Sure. Raise taxes. But before you do, read Arthur Laffer. I'm a tax specialist. It's what I do for a living. Let me assure you that there does come a point at which the tax rate becomes unacceptable and taxpayers react ... they "hide" income ... they fail to report ... they get involved in barter schemes ... they work for cash ... they invest in tax shelters no matter how unprofitable or risky ... the list goes on. From personal experience - when Canada dropped it's top marginal tax rate from 64% (yeah, you read it right - 64%) to less than 50% my high-rate clients paid MORE in taxes than before. The incentive to avoid taxes at that high rate just wasn't as great.

"We'll tax companies that ship jobs abroad!" Now there's a brilliant idea. If you're a manufacturer, where do you want your factory - in a country with high (and increasing) tax rates, or in a country with low (or no) taxes? If it's me, I'll close my American plant and move ALL the jobs to ... wherever. Talk about "negative return on investment".

"We'll renegotiate NAFTA!" Uh-huh. "Mr. Obama? Mr. Harper here. We understand you have a problem with NAFTA. Let me see here ... oil, natural gas, fresh water, hydro power, minerals ... Just thinking aloud. We have other customers for that stuff. Sure you want to do this?"

I'm sure Mr. Obama is a nice guy and he means well. But in my view the impact on the US economy in general and the stock market in particular is clear. He'd be an economic disaster for the US - especially with a Congress that will do little or nothing to stop him.

It isn't that McCain is so wonderful. We'll probably end up with some variation of the status quo. It's that Obama is so bad ... and having Biden is no help.

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RayD answered a question in Latest News.
102 points

RayD answered 3 months ago …

If one listened to Obama's speech at the convention, you heard words that neither party has said before. That is, he would look the existing programs and eliminate the parts that are useless and/or eliminate the whole program and hopefully install programs that make fiscal sense.
Also, to say that Bush's administration was fiscally conservative is a joke. Bush did not veto a single bill (many full of pork) during the first 6 years (Republican control) and only started to veto bills when the Democrats gained more control.
The right wing "media", including McCain's commercials have consistently tried to mimimize Obama's experience. There are always (at least) 2 sides to these stories/reports.
Republican's like to always say " watch your wallet if a Democrat is elected. I say the Republicans have forgotten their roots as a party on being fiscally conservative, since Bush entered the presidency
and McCain will only change that perception slightly.
since Bush came into office and McCain

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MNSL answered a question in Latest News.
2703 points

MNSL answered 3 months ago …

I think policy makers will address to control inflation. There will be some positive developments in the energy sector. There will be some affect for some commodites.

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