Cramer just called a bottom in the housing market (again) - who here thinks he's right?
Answers
288 points
CG answered 2 months ago …
He's quite wrong. It'll be at least 2-3 years before the bottom is seen, and that bottom itself will last a couple years or more. If we're lucky.
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2641 points
MNSL answered 2 months ago …
I think CG is correct.
There will be more pain in the real estae and commmodtiy sectors before it becomes better not only in the USA bur also worldwide.
Almost all the assets are overpriced and some has to come down by more than 50% specially commodity and property prices.
We are not even half way for some assets.
However some sectors and companies will benefit most during next 18 monhts and beyond.
246 points
engcomp answered 2 months ago …
There are two indisputable facts:
1) the price of assets fluctuates above and below their true value; and
2) the nominal value of assets increases through inflation (loss of the value of fiat currency) and other factors (growth of general wealth) by some percentage.
If you draw a least-squares-average regression line through historical price data, you can see whether we are currently above or below the true value of an asset.
You don't need me to tell you that you should sell when the price is above, and buy when it is below, that regression line. The problem is to know how far above or below the price can go. There are people who pretend that they know, but I am not one of them.
400 points
spider348 answered one month ago …
As a RE investor I have to say it depends on where you are. In my locale, the market slowed. In another area I invest in, the market has kept appreciating ! But like we see on the news, many areas that saw parabolic price increases from the late 90's till '05-'06 got hurt the most. Just like our equities markets right now, parabolic rise, then tank. So I think it is a mixed bag. By making that prediction, he is both right & wrong, which is enough to keep the TV viewers coming back.
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