Do you think GDP will finally indicate a recession?
Answers
3963 points
MNSL answered one year ago …
We are already in recession. In some countires recession started at the begining of this year.
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251 points
MichaelShulman answered one year ago …
We have actually been in a recession since Q4 of 2007, and it is accelerating rapidly as credit contracts for consumers and businesses.
I Minimum credit card payments are doubling, home equity lines are being canceled or tightened, and a regulatory change in credit card markets next year could end up killing more than $2 trillion in consumer credit lines. The recession is evidenced in both contracted consumer and business behavior.
2082 points
alanj answered one year ago …
We are most likely in a recession evidenced by a bear market in both the equities and commodities markets. And there are no other markets that are in a bull market that can over come all the other bear markets. Even though the dollar is in a bull market, this is because the global economies are doing worse than the US. This in turn is driving the dollar up. But that really isn't an answer to your question.
You asked whether the GDP will indicate a recession. The GDP is a lagging indicator by about 6 months. In order for the GDP to indicate a recession there needs to be 2 quarters of negative growth. We just had our 1st quarter of negative growth. It will take another 3 months to get another report in order for the GDP to indicate whether or not we are in a recession.
