Manufacturing was down more than expected - but shouldn't that just be "expected" at this point?
I mean, shouldn't the market have all this stuff factored in already?
Answers
2222 points
readytoretire answered 11 months ago …
The market experts? had expected about a 3% drop. What they got was about a 10% drop, with new orders setting a low record, while prices also declined. With the index now in the low 30's, and 50 being the neutral point, we have a ways to go.
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3963 points
MNSL answered 11 months ago …
I think worst to come in the production and manufactring sector in the next 12 months.
Definitely manufacturing sector will underperform in the next 18 months. Production Companies in Tyre, ceramic, leather, mining, auto; electronic, iron and steel will have one of the worst production performances in the next 02 years.
If world economies improve they will have demand for their products. Otherwise production companies with heavy debt and poor cash flow will become bankrupt.
731 points
thinker70 answered 11 months ago …
You postulate a reasonable premise as the market usually looks FORWARD up to 6 months. The market also tends to overshoot on both down and upside depending on whether pessimism or optimism prevails. There are some indications that we have turned a corner at least temporarily as the Obama optimism kicks in. The market may well surprise on the upside for a few months at least, but one must be cautious as there could be more "shoes to drop" that would have the market test recent lows in some sectors.
It is more important than ever to do your due diligence on individual companies to make sure that there are not negative factors lurking in the financial statements such as excess inventory, near term debt repayments etc. Just make sure that any company you are considering because it APPEARS to be a bargain IS actually on a sound financial and sales footage!
