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U.S. Housing Slump Has ‘Just Begun. Do you agree?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=a8mdg7z0u7Dw&r efer=home#

Talbott’s latest predictions are sobering. The U.S. is only halfway through the total potential decline in housing prices, he says. Home values will continue to deteriorate for four to five years, he forecasts.

By the time the crash ends, Talbott predicts, homeowners will have lost as much as $10 trillion, with investors and banks worldwide losing almost $2 trillion.

Talbott concludes that real prices should return to their average 1997 levels, adjusted for inflation.

How did we get into this mess?

Talbott blames everyone from average Americans who caught “the greed bug” to hedge funds and credit-default swaps.

I agree with some of hid predictions. Do you agree?

Best Answer

thinker70 answered a question in Real Estate.
731 points

thinker70 answered 9 months ago …

I agree that the "resets" beginning in Apr. 09 have the potential to launch another tusanami of falling dominoes in the housing market! Blame has been attached to many different people and institutions and sectors of the economy, but mostly they are representative of mere symptoms, and yes, there are discernible cycles as others have noted.

The problem is that ALL of the supposed culprits and proposed solutions as in the various "bailout" pians: IGNORE the fundamentals, they deal only with SYMPTOMS, not the underlying STRUCTURAL problems! For this reason I am going to focus on your statement of: "How did we get into this mess?"

It started in 1913 with the passage of the Ponzi scheme known as the Federal Reserve Act which effectively made the government and all its citizens DEBT SLAVES! Why you ask, because it gave PRIVATE BANKERS a monopoly (supposedly illegal) to create our money supply out of thin air and loan it out at INTEREST! This is actually un-constitutional as this power was to be exercised by CONGRESS, not private bankers

If you doubt that it is a monopoly as charged, try printing some numbers on pretty paper and calling it MONEY and see how long it takes until hard nosed people in uniforms and drawn guns show up at your door and put you behind bars.

Now look up "fiat currency" in the dictionary and you will see that our legal tender laws have substituted worthless paper I.O.U.'s that FORCE people to use these creations of private bankers in place of a specific weight and purity of gold and silver (HONEST MONEY with intrinsic value) as specified in the constitution based on the biblical laws of having "JUST" weights and measures so nobody is defrauded.

Fiat currency as created by our fractional reserve banking system IS a FRAUD because "each bank loan is a new creation of money, and when it is paid back it ceases to exist", Graham Towers former Governor of the Bank of Canada!
The key here is that since mortgages (French meaning DEATH GAMBLE) usually have a 25 year amortization requiring the borrower to pay back almost DOUBLE the original principal borrowed, (depending on interest rate) and this means that on a progressive basis, since the interest is never created by this iniquitous system, TWICE the amount originally created is REMOVED from the economy.

Now look up the definition of a Ponzi scheme in the dictionary and you will realize if you can add 2 + 2 and come up with 4, that the fractional reserve banking system requires an exponentially increasing number of NEW LOANS to maintain adequate specie in circulation to run a stable economy just as ANY pyramid operates!

As the scheme progressed and got into trouble as the DEBT PYRAMID expanded,various "patch jobs" were used to revive the economy, including taking us off the gold standard (Nixon, 1971) which was the one thing that kept the excesses somewhat in check. As the limits of the DEBT PYRAMID re-emerged in ever more tightening cycles, exotic new products were added to keep the Ponzi scheme going for another round, with ever more sophisticated elements not understood by the masses including but not limited too, credit cards, CDO,s, derivatives etc. Even the creators of derivatives have no idea what the ultimate consequences will be WHEN, not if, that deck of cards collapses, No wonder as sophisticated an investor as Warren Buffet calls them "financial weapons of mass destruction."

Back in the days when we had at least a semblance of honest money most people were thrifty and SAVED a good portion of their income and put it in the bank where they magically became "RESERVES" allowing the banks to progressively create as much as 20-X in NEW DOLLARS for every one on deposit with them! It is a complete MYTH, (no lets call it what it is, an outright LIE designed to deceive the masses) that banks loan out their depositors money!

THINK, how can a bank loan out a LIABILITY, after all it is your money that you are able to withdraw at will unless you have made a term deposit! IT is all the overreaching, the creation of new DEBT instruments piled layer on layer to keep this Ponzi scheme going that is at the foundation of the present crisis, and it is only being made WORSE by the government in CREATING MORE DEBT that dilutes the value of every existing dollar. This is WHY the present dollar is worth about 4c in PURCHASING POWER compared to the 1913 dollar before the Federal Reserve was enacted!

In contrast, an ounce of gold will still buy the best suit in town, just as it did at the turn of the century!
People talk about inflation, but they don't understand HOW it is created, in a word, "INTEREST" so no wonder the government tries to HIDE the real rate of inflation which numerous experts estimate to be at LEAST DOUBLE the governments official statistics.

The bottom line on all of this is quite simple, we have been SEDUCED by easy credit, instead of saving, (which would finance business expansion or provide the down payment for a home) we are encouraged to "get it now"whether buying on credit cards at teaser rates as low as 1.9% or interest only mortgages, liar loans, sub-prime etc. all in a DESPERATE attempt to keep a FAILED fiat currency system on life support! Th U.S. is technically bankrupt and IF interest rates rise back to traditional levels the level of debt after the bailouts, will make interest payments untenable so we can view the present low interest rtes not as a gift, but the death throes of a flawed system, a failed experiment that must be acknowledged and CHANGED before the system collapses of its own weight as pyramids always do!

The bottom line is that UNTIL enough Americans listen to Ron Paul and put pressure on their elected representatives for positive changes, the situation will only continue to get worse in ever more destructive downward spirals. Ron Paul has introduced a Bill in Congress to abolish the Federal Reserve,the Income tax and the IRS!

EDUCATE YOURSELF on the subject by plugging the following into the Google search engine; America: from Freedom to Fascism a video that will make your hair stand on end if this subject is new too you!

I would also recommend reading the book The Creature from Jekyl Island by G. Griffin and there are many more where you can apply common sense and reason when you see FACTS that PROVE you have been hoodwinked by bankster propaganda. Instead of being a patsy to the International Bankers scheme to enslave you, learn HOW you can at least partially avoid their enslavement and propaganda by avoiding their hidden tax of inflation and debasement of the currency

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Answers

SirCrashton answered a question in Real Estate.
380 points

SirCrashton answered 9 months ago …

Although I don't know when this mess will fully play out, the carnage is not over. One analyst noted this morning that the peak in ARMs occurred in April 2004, that these mortgages are due to reset at higer rates in April 2009, and that as many as 70% are expected to go into default (unless the government bails them out, too). This indebetness is estimated to be in the TRILLION dollar range.

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Dusty answered a question in Real Estate.
356 points

Dusty answered 9 months ago …

Credit Suisse published a chart of mortgage resets in 2007. The chart shows that "Subprime" resets lasted from late summer 2007 through the end of 2008 and are essentially over.

In 2009 the resets are all down a little. The chart does show a bump of resets in the spring and a bigger bump in the fall. Calendar 2009 just looks like a big Bear Trap.

Beginning January of 2010 through the early spring of 2012, nearly 30 consecutive months, "Alt-A" and Agency resets will match and exceed anything seen so far. With the economy and most financial entities already in shreds, the looming general chaos and disaster will very likely not be over until well into the twenty-teens.

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BoxCar answered a question in Real Estate.
678 points

BoxCar answered 9 months ago …

What is occuring is a long term cycle of socio-economic collapse that happens every
3 generations, an event as bad or deep as the last 2, the 1st Great Depression and
the Civil War, both spaced apart by 3 generations. Its not population growth thats the
culprit (US has Zero growth now) its that population grows in wavelets, such as the
post war baby boomers. Its when 1st generation reaches maturity, begins to retire,
at that point in time you have aged & newborns AND retirees, none of whom work,
this is the straw that breaks the economy's back again and again like clockwork.
Only the economic details are changed dependent on the times, for example, the
purpose of the Civil War was NOT to "free" the slaves, in1862 Land Grant College
Act was intended to Mechanize Agriculture which meant slavery had to go. Read
www.archives.gov Lincoln's emancipation proclamation to realize he "fired" them.
Root cause of Great Depression was not Wall Street, it was the fact Mechanized
Agriculture was finally "in place" and so many were thrown out of work- no jobs.
Teens with hoes walked the land to chop cotton for food. Called 'em Hoe Boys.
Bet you never heard that one- rent "The Grapes of Wrath" to see bulldozers used
to clear sharecropper farms where labor was not reqd anymore, pushed 'em off.
Like GDI, the economy is also about [Job Loss] good paying jobs sent overseas
China had a Civil War too over land reform but Slavery won out in China so today
you have "Made in China....by slaves" With deleveraging of wages and job loss comes a loss in the ability to pay for anything, so everything plunges. The most
interesting thing is the 1993 Solar Mortality Theory predicted this event would
occur precisely about 2007.5- How's that? Bosnian death records show birthdates
of victims peaked in 1930 and 1963 to give 33.3 yrs for the 1st generation of
Europeans. Not many births during WWII. Since the next 2 generations were a
normal 22.2yr solar cycle each, it gives a total of 77.7yrs since 1929.8 stk mkt
crash. Add 77.7yrs to 1929.8 to get 2007.5 which was stated in a Jan'06 blog
www.genocideorigins.blogspot.com when the next major global event occurs.
Now we know it was the begining of the subprime mortgage meltdowns. The
collapse of real estate and banking system is subsequent to real problem JOBS
The others are discussing details of present economic systems, this has been
an attempt to answer the question "How did we ever get into this mess?"
Answer is "History repeats itself" we are all to blame for not buying American.

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EthanR answered a question in Real Estate.
4075 points

EthanR answered 9 months ago …

I am not sure that I agree with the prediction, for the following reason:

Most Americans move every 5-7 years. This means that right now, most American homeowners who are moving bought their homes sometime between 2002-2007. Those people who are on 30 year loans have only paid down a couple of thousand in interest during that time. So essentially if prices move down below 2002 levels, very few of those people would be able to sell their homes without having to bring large sums of money to the closing table to pay off their mortgages.

Therefore that puts a "floor" under 2002 prices, and means that a large inventory of homes would then be taken off the market, resulting in a much better balance of buyers to sellers. That would tend to stabilize falling prices.

Just because there are large numbers of foreclosures on the market does not necessarily mean that all prices will crash. Recently we have seen many investors buying foreclosures because the prices have dropped to levels (perhaps 1997 pricing) where rents can cover the total mortgage payment, especially with interest rates having come down. Also, because lenders are once again demanding that investors put down 20%, the monthly payment has dropped considerably. Plus, with fewer people buying homes, that means that more people are renting, and so that has put a floor under rental pricing as well, even though many people who couldn't sell have put their homes up for rent.

Final thought: When appraisers are looking for comparative sales, they do not use the foreclosure sales unless they can not find three regular sales at higher prices in that area. They recognize that foreclosures, though much higher in numbers, are still an anomaly to the prices for a particular subdivision or two mile radius around the house. So unless there are more foreclosures than regular sales in an area, the prices of non-foreclosures do not deteriorate to the same degree as the foreclosures do.

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invemilca answered a question in Real Estate.
102 points

invemilca answered 9 months ago …

Yes I do.

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jillybeansisme answered a question in Real Estate.
896 points

jillybeansisme answered 9 months ago …

I have a tendency to be an optimistic person. While the world economy is in the toilet, and the US is part of that world economy, we have allowed ourselves to be sold down the river. We have raised this wonderful country to be spoiled little brats. And with every action there is a consequence.

We are experiencing that consequence now. Unfortunately, I disagree with all of the bailouts. I do have my own economic stimulus plan and I'm sure all of you would find flaws with it. This plan will:

1.) keep and create jobs for citizens;
2.) provide for education for citizens;
3.) provide for retirement for citizens;
4.) should eliminate debt for citizens;
5.) should resolve the housing and foreclosure problems;
6.) should resolve the banking fiasco;
7.) provide stimulus to the auto industry;
8.) reduce and/or eliminate the homeless and poor situation;
9.) provide relief to the health care industry; and,
10.) stimulate the economy as a whole.

We have approximately 300 million citizens--guestimating 1M children, 1.3M tax-paying citizens, and .7M non-tax-paying citizens (seniors, disabled, indigent, etc.). Send a check to each tax-paying citizen in the amount of $1,000,000 (One Million Dollars) and to each minor child and non-tax-paying citizen for $250,000 (Two Hundred Fifty Thousand Dollars). While this works from the bottom up, it will cost less than everything else that has been tried and failed and should actually work. The only stipulation would be that it must be applied to credit card/auto loan type debt first and the rest you do with as you may.

We all know that some will save and some will spend. Either way, it jumpstarts the world economy. We're paying for all these bailouts anyway, so why not do the Suze Orman method and PAY OURSELVES FIRST!

The carnage might not be over, but I do believe it will bleed less and less. I just wish the buildging would stop. It's like they (the developers) just hope to sneak in one more project before the other shoe drops. I do feel that the housing market and this mess will turn around. History repeats itself in some form. After every bear market/recession/depression/stinkin' mess there is a bull market party.

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