Is today's market just a dead cat bounce or do you think we've finally turned a corner?
Answers
108 points
bobbyb answered 9 months ago …
We haven't turned a corner yet. The market has been starved for anything positive, and we got some decent news today. this could be a bear market rally, but its not close to truly turning yet.
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3963 points
MNSL answered 9 months ago …
We will see more volatility in the market.
However I think there will be surprise rally during next 03 months surprise to many. Shorting market will be very risky during this period and there will be more one day rallies in the future for positive news such as cit is going to make profit in this quarter.
Simple businesses such as repair shops, Second hand shops. Educational services. Selected farm products such as egg and chicken and export consumer goods will do well during this depression period. (In some countries some of these businesses will be very profitable due to their local demand and export demand)
For example investors will have above average gain by investing in Sanderson Chicken Farm Ltd in every market weakness in the USA. Similarity these types of opportunities can be found in other countries as well. Some of these types of companies will have cost advantage, local and export market advantage in the next 05 years. Always there will be demand for these products. In addition their competitors have mountain of debt in their books.
One sector that we should avoid is luxury sector. This sector will hit hard. There will not be market for luxury houses, cars, jets, electronics, gold and diamond jewelries and other luxury items in the next 05 years.
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368 points
ads answered 9 months ago …
Have to agree with bobbyb and MNSL, that this is likely just a bear-rally, but is not the "bottom" from which things will turn around (not yet anyways). One of the major problems with the current economic situation in the U.S. anyways is bad mortgages, which there are still a lot of out there, many of which will not truly be dealt with or foreclosed on yet. Thus I'd expect the financials to suffer for a while yet, and as long as they are in their current troubled state they will be very cautious in their lending, which will in turn reduce both consuerm spending as well as business capital spending (at least until the financial markets clear up or until people learn to live within their means). Thus, I don't think we have turned a corner, as yesterdays upward movement is likely only temporary (may prove to be an extended rally, but I doubt it will be sustained for more than a week, but it most likely is not the end of the bear market yet (I'd not expect that for another 3-9 months or more with the current conditions).
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102 points
Grandpa answered 9 months ago …
Here are a some points that I haven't seen any discussion on, that I believe will have a big effect on the market, and the economy going forward.
1) As business' go broke and/or lay off a huge amount of employees, it will become extremely difficult for them to maintain their rent/mortgages. This will cause a lot of foreclosures in the commercial real estate sector.
2) Massive credit card losses by the financial institutions, because of the high unemployment.
3) Extremely low rates on saving instruments, which are beginning to hurt our retired and older population, will cause added pressure on their spending habits. Remember, we now have a senior populations that equals or surpasses our younger population.
I have not seen any of these problems addressed, as of this date.
678 points
BoxCar answered 8 months ago …
Read "thewallstreetbully.blogspot.com" 20Dec08 comparison of 4 Bad Bear Mkts to
realize the present Bear Mkt is tracking the post-1929.8 stk mkt crash quite well.
After the mkt crash in the fall its 100 or so days to the next peak, after that its a looong
down escalator for several years we are faced with. It will be descibed as GDII or the
2nd Great Depression, just as we didn't realize The Great War was WWI until WWII.
How do we know this? Google "The Solar Mortality Theory" to understand the only
SCIENTIFIC explanation for our current economic circumstances irregardless of
what pundits say about current economy, the die off is already cast when we had a
surplus of post war baby boomers who are now retireing to take us over the cliff-
Obama might walk on water, but even he can't alter these FACTS of LIFE- sorry
678 points
BoxCar answered 8 months ago …
Like BATF said when FBI was negotiating a surrender of Branch Davidians, Waco, TX
"There ain't gonna' be no surrender." at least thats what they told ME over phone.
Likewise about the global stk mkt rallys- "There ain't gonna' be no corner to turn" sorry
203 points
Future1investor answered 8 months ago …
Look for a rollercoaster market ahead with it being flat to lower following each bear rally big or small. To see a video of the recent rally, look here: http://tinyurl.com/chsrxz
There is an indicator which has been around since 1957. It has accurately forecasted every inflationary and deflationary cycle since.
This is our number one indicator for large cyclic trends. You may want to watch this index carefully should you want to invest in certain stocks and commodity related markets.
Over the last half-century, this index has seen some remarkable moves both on the upside and more recently on the downside. I believe that this is the indicator that everyone should watch. If you trade stocks or futures and are interested in world trade trends, this is the indicator to track.
See it here: http://tinyurl.com/d8wcx3
I think that these two demonstrate where we are heading in the near future. There are more indicators which synergisticly work with these to help show us where the market is trending overall.
