Assuming a long-term investment horizon, what stocks would you be buying over the next 3-12 months?
Particularly I am thinking of well-managed, well-respected business with good brands which are going to be around for 20 years+. Not necessarily sexy industries promising massive returns - steady 10-15% a year growth (over the long term) and no sleepless nights is what interests me.
Additional Information:
Thanks all. I am already averaging into some indeces/ETFs, so the idea is to complement this with a handful of stocks, dipping my feet in over a year or so in each one.
I like the utilities idea - any ones in particular?
Oil companies - any ones in mind? I already own some BP and Shell
KO, MCD, WMT - I also like these companies, but I see they have not come down greatly in past 6 months and are still trading on quite high PEs (~15) - should this be reason for optimism or should I be wary of further downside?
Answers
2082 points
alanj answered 8 months ago …
If you must buy at this time I'd say Walmart would be a good choice. There are a lot of people out of work and it's not going to improve anytime soon. If they have to buy something it's going to be at a discount store like Walmart's.
And until the stock markets turn around, you might want to consider gold stocks or a gold ETF like GLD. This would be a shorter time frame than what you where looking for. And you would have to keep a closer eye on them.
Stay away from the Ultra ETF's. If you hold them for any length of time they will lose value. Because they are adjusted each day. Kind of like options are. They are for short term trading.
731 points
thinker70 answered 8 months ago …
Probably the safest income producers are utilities, whether water, gas or electricity, with a history of consistent high dividends etc. pipelines and others that have a semi-monopoly to supply essentials that are needed by all regardless of the state of the economy!
Consumer staples companies with a good track record, Procter and Gamble comes to mind, major food companies such as Hershey could also be candidates IF you buy them at the right time in the cycle.
Given the horrendous pull back in oil, investment in smaller nimble well capitalized lesser known wildcatters could also have tremendous upside as demand surges while exploration and reserves have fallen off. Demand will within a few years again outstrip suplly as older fields are depleted and fewer new ones are found.
2082 points
alanj answered 8 months ago …
Oil stocks should also do well. There is only so much oil available. It's down now because of the economy and unemployment. When more people get back to work and the economy turns around there will be a higher usage which should drive the price back up. Maybe not as high as it was but higher than it is now.
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4075 points
EthanR answered 8 months ago …
I would simply buy some DOW stocks (or even the DIA which mimics the DOW). In particular I like DIS, AA, DD, CAT, KO, and MCD at current levels. I think these stocks will match the criteria you are seeking, although I'm not sure that 15% a year is realistic. I think it will be closer to 10% or a little more.
Read more from EthanR122 points
mahoneybe answered 8 months ago …
I'm buying a couple of gold stocks and possibly some penny green energy if I can find one close to a grid.
Obama loves to spend
Bob
731 points
thinker70 answered 8 months ago …
Some companies to consider could include Deere & Co. as a leader in the agricultural sector, after all people have to eat.
3m company is a well established respected and diversified company to consider.
General Electric has been beaten down but has a worldwide footprint in industries that should benefit from initiatives by the Obama government!
You could hardly go wrong over the next few years investing in well run, profitable miners like GoldCorp, Agnico Eagle, BHP Biliton, For a turnaround in oil you might look at Apache, Peyto Ehergy Trust, and there have been good buy points for Hess, Conoco-Philips, Chevron, Marathon and others, in that range, and possibly refiners like Tesoro and Valero, you just need to put them on a watch list and pick your entry point.
A little foreign diversification could be a good move, in blue chips look at Petrrobas of Brazil and also a Brazilian utility with an ADR, CPL CFPL Energia,,domestics to look at could include New Jersey Resources (NJR), South Jersey Industries (SJR), UGI Corp. and as an after thought, high dividend blue chips worth a look would be Johnson and Johnson, United technologies, Emerson Electric, NIKE, Proctor and Gamble, IBM for a well diversified portfolio over several sectors.
I am answering your question in the context of your perspective but i would caution that past performance is no guarantee of FUTURE performance, conditions change, managements change, industries change etc. nobody can look 20 years into the future with any clarity. You would be wise to take profits anytime you have 25-50% gains unless you are certain there is nothing on the horizon to change the outlook. A trailing stop of 20% once you have those kinds of profits to protect your downside should keep you from falling in love with any individual stock getting you caught in a down cycle. We expect a report card every 6 months.
3943 points
MNSL answered 8 months ago …
I think we will have more and more volatility in all types of markets in the coming decade. X generation also will retire in this decade and this will reduce demand for some products and assets .Demographic changes will change entire capital market and new sectors will emerge as bullish sectors in the next 10 years. Some countries will have above average growth than other countries.
Different Investment strategies should apply for different markets and different countries in the coming decade..
Current global economic situation is completely different from Asian currency crisis, 1987 share market crash etc. One should be very careful in selecting investment and savings. There will be deflationary period to adjust current inflated asset prices into correct value. We will see more and more fall in prices in many assets. It is happening in USA, Canada, UK, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong mong, Singapore, China to Australia etc in addition to rapid increase in unemployment rate. There are more commercial building leasing and more sales in retail shops. There are more advertisement for houses, and car and other assets than jobs in news papers globally now.
We have more characteristics of deflation globally now. In the same time we have some characteristics of inflation, hyperinflation and stagflation as well. For example we have deflation for large purchase that requires loans; we have inflation for foods.
In the next 05 years consumer staples, simple business, next rotating sector, neglected sector will outperform the market. We will have plenty of short term rallies as well.
There will be gradual recovery in 2010 due to lower interest rate, lower commodity and oil prices and global effort. In case if we see bull market towards 2011 it will be short lived as dot com bubble in 2001. There will be hyperinflation in 2012.
Once economy improves together with China around 2015 there will be long term opportunity in oil sector, financial sector and some other sectors. If oil stay below $70 after 2015 there will be great investment opportunities in some Airlines including Boeing and European Air Plane manufactures. In the meantime’s some hedge funds operators and corporations will try to dispose every assets whenever there is a rise in the market to balance their overleveraged positions and to prevent from bankruptcy globally. It is happening globally now. They sold stocks, property and gold and everything in some Asia pacific region in the last two months.
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Small and individual investors should never buy over valued stocks now. In the same time they should avoid stocks overinvested by hedge funds and some other corporations in the next 10 years.
Stocks to watch now:
Companies with strong balance sheets, which do not have much debt
on their books
Companies whose products or services are not much affected by fall in demand
Companies where decline in prices lead to increase demand for their products including value-added products
Capital goods sector, Real estate companies, Commodity companies, Auto, Electronics, tech and software, leather, tyre, ceramics, leisure, travel and tourism sector, leasing, insurance, drug sector and some weak banks and financial companies etc should be avoided now.
Pl see following link as well:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/4969399/Sell- every-asset-except-gilts.html
'Sell every asset except gilts'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4996994/Britain -showing-signs-of-heading-towards-1930s-style-depression-says-Bank.html
Britain is showing signs of sliding towards a 1930s-style depression, the Bank of England says today for the first time.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/4967402/China-deflation-fears -as-consumer-prices-fall.html
Consumer prices in China fell for the first time in six years in February, raising the threat of deflation as the global downturn worsens
http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/inflation-at-14-year-low044/35 2385/
Economists raised the possibility of deflation in the first half of the financial year starting April, after headline inflation rose at its slowest pace in 14 years since the new inflation series was introduced in 1995
http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/connectasia/stories/200903/s2514078.htm
Less than a year ago inflation was a major concern for many of Asia's economies. Now its opposite, deflation is emerging as the latest threat which could make the global recession worse if it takes hold. Japan with rapidly falling prices and rising consumer fear, is bracing for years of economic turmoil. The global recession means others could get caught in the deflation spiral as Karon Snowdon reports.
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/605286
February rise in prices eases deflation fear
://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24930744-5018 001,00.html
Deflation risks loom as prices fall: survey
678 points
BoxCar answered 8 months ago …
Consider natural gas companies like CHK, APC, & LNG
Since the Oct stk mkt meltdown, all have shown a steady
albeit shallow upward trend line of oscillation. We all have
to eat and bulk of our fertilizer is made from natural gas.
