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Where is the market heading? Time to sell into this rally, or do we keep buying?
The speed with which sentiment has changed from ultra-bearish (overdone) to talk of a recovery (also I believe overdone) make me question how sustainable this market recovery is. Is another 'leg down' on its way?
Best Answer
MNSL answered 6 months ago …
I think it is too early to predict. However, there will be continuous interest for some stocks in the next 12 months globally. Now some investors are secretly accumulating global stocks systematically .There will be plenty of investment opportunities in almost type of markets such as developed, less developed and emerging markets in the next 9 to 12 months. We will have more and more volatility in all types of market in the next decade. We will see sector oriented bull markets during next 5 years. In addition, we will have bubble and burst in commodity and currency market. I think next crisis will begin from currency crisis.
It is true some are talking about recovery. Recovery in what? Yes, some companies in some sectors will recover faster than other sectors in the next 18 months. We have to be realistic. I do not think that some sectors will recover fully during next 6 years. These sectors should avoid now. There will be more volatility in these sectors in the future including currency market. Some companies will hit hard. Price will increase due to speculation and not due to demand in some sectors.
Now some are becoming bullish on the market now. Majorly of top investors and analysts, think emerging Asian markets are more promising than other markets? They expect bull market l break out at the end of this year.
http://www.widgetbox.com/network/finance/post/mark-mobius-sees-asia-bull-m arket-developing/789973
Mark Mobius Sees Asia Bull Market Developing
The “Pied Piper of Emerging Markets” is leading his followers to Asia these days, according to Dow Jones Newswires. The Wall Street Journal’s Ellen Sheng wrote about emerging markets veteran Mark Mobius this morning, and said: Mark Mobius, executive Read more…
http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/April/wall-streets-new-bull-market.ht ml
Believe it or not, but based on the classic Wall Street definitions, we’re in a new bull market. As of last Friday, all three major market indices recovered more than 20% from their March 9 lows.
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http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4180/is_20090114/ai_n31193120/
Those who believe the economy will bottom out in July, as a number of forecasters do, the bull market, should begin four months earlier, in March 2009.
If the current recession lasts another six to eight months, the anticipatory bull market likely would begin some time between March and May
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/03/marc-faber-makes-bullish-comments< /a>- on-bloomberg.html
Marc Faber makes bullish comments
Some prerequisites for long term bull run:
First, a good development trend of the macro-economy,
Availability of abundant market funds, more potential investors willing to become actual investors
Confidence among investors
Some bull factors to watch:
Falling global interest rate
Lower oil, commodity prices and lower inflation
Global effort to stabilize markets
Best investment strategy:
Should invest in undervalued companies with less debt and real demand for their products and services in sectors such as next rotating sectors, neglected sectors and out of favor sectors.
Remember that the sectors that will lead the next bull market will almost certainly not be the same ones that led the previous bull.
Answers
alanj answered 6 months ago …
The S&P 500 is just within reach of being overbought. However, it is still in an uptrend. And until that trend changes you want to trade with the trend. That said, it is not time to sell yet. If you use a protective stop that is not too close to the current price so you do not get stopped out to soon but not so far behind to wipe out any profit you have, the stop will tell you when to sell. But with the markets so close to being overbought I wouldn't buy either. Now is the time to hold onto whatever you have and wait for the sell off that will be coming. Then after the sell off and followed by another trend change to the upside you can then start buying again.
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