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Is the recession over?
Additional Information:
I think some sectors will have recession until 2011. Some sectors until 2010. Some sectors just ending their recession and these sectors will grow gradually. Recession in few sectors is close to over.
According to some analysts, recession has ended in Japan, Germany and France and USA recession is close to over.
I think Consumers will spend more for some sectors. They will spend less for some sectors. Baby boomers will change entire direction. Currency trend will change sooner than later surprise to many. This trend will change in every three to six months. Few top Investment banks will benefit most. They will make profit in any type of market. Even there is recession or not. We will see daily volatility in oil, and currencies.
Any further thought on the recession? Exactly how do we know whether we are out of recession?
Thanks.
Answers
153 points
JSIMMER answered 3 months ago …
Although the employment figure is NOT a leading indicator rather a lagging indicator, I think we need to see a significant bounce off the reported 10% unemployment (probably closer to 14% in nominal terms) Most banks have just started to lend again, however, the consumer is not spending. While interest rates are depressed in the US, the Dollar will not bounce back to historical averages for many years. It wouldn't surprise me to see a rebuilding decade of confidence for the Dollar. Since our economy is a service driven and not commodity driven the recession in the US will lag to many other nations.
I would not follow others into gold or oil however soybeans and copper will be the hedge against inflation in the coming years. Our recession will end by the end of 2010. Do not be surprised by overconfidence in the market to pull us down 20% from current levels. I would not worry at all, but better entry points will come over the next few months.
Your question is very complex however I do not see an end to this recession until 2011
102 points
ProceedWithCaution answered 3 months ago …
JSIMMER says:
"Our recession will end by the end of 2010."
-AND-
"Your question is very complex however I do not see an end to this recession until 2011."
This is why its best not to rely on message boards and posts from unknown readers, for economic or financial advice.
