Advice on foreign currency exposure for an expat's cash savings
I am from the UK, but am moved about internationally for work. Ultimately I may end up moving back to the UK - but whether this is in 1 yr or 10 I don't know. Hence I am planning for the long-term what to do with my cash savings. Stocks/shares I am considering seperately
Most of my cash in pounds but I also have an amount saved in NZD and HKD. In particular NZD has appreciated against the GBP and USD a lot recently, and the HKD (tied to the USD) has appreciated a lot against the GBP since a year ago.
Any advice for what currencies I should keep my savings in? NZD is getting 3% interest but may be overbought. HKD/USD almost zero % interest and may weaken further against the GBP and other currencies. GBP I can get 3-4% (well above BOE rate) but I am not sure where GBP is headed given the state of the UK economy.
I might also consider the Yuan as this has the potential to strengthen over the long-term. And what about Euros or Swiss Francs?
Your thoughts much appreciate
Answers
3963 points
MNSL answered 2 weeks ago …
Next six months is very crucial. I think around March US Dollar can go up. Some Asian currencies will appreciate in the future.
I do not think any currency will appreciate and depreciate continuously due to so many factors.
Remember there are different types of currency players in the currency market. Some can change the direction of the currency market instantly.
NZD and AUD appreciated rapidly during last six months surprise to many. I think currency traders, top investors and carry traders are responsible for appreciation of above currencies more than the fundamental reasons. This has affected very badly for their export industry and tourism.
Once top currency investors unfold some currencies they will go down like a rock. There will be further upside in both NZD and AUD. Sometimes AUD will appreciate closer to USD during next two months.
